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Real-time BG Radar:
This Afternoon – Scat’d Storms – High 83˚ / Tonight – Iso’d Storms – Low 60˚
Cloud cover broke up across much of southern Kentucky by mid morning, which has allowed rays of sunshine to prime up our atmosphere for potential storms this afternoon.
Lingering boundaries from this morning’s activity to our north may serve as forcing boundaries for storms to fire along. The HRRR simulated radar model below is valid for 2pm, and favors the idea of activity ramping up around that time:
With the given ingredients in our atmosphere, any storm that does initiate will intensify quickly, bringing with it very heavy rain, lightning, and the potential for damaging winds and hail. A few storms may even meet severe criteria. Although marginal, an isolated tornado threat will exist.
The latest SPC Convective outlook keeps our area under a Marginal Risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening:
Thu 4/9 – Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 82˚ / Thu Night – Strong/Severe Storms Likely – Low 58˚
Lingers showers and a few storms will be hit & miss throughout our Thursday, with partly sunny skies appearing in between. This will help once again prime our atmosphere for potential severe weather as we get into Thursday night.
The SPC has already included us in a Enhanced Risk for severe storms during this time, with a 45% probability of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of any give point. That’s significant:
A stout cold front will surge east across the viewing area late Thursday into early Friday, coinciding with available instability and moisture to fire off strong/severe convection. Ingredients for severe weather will be ripe with this particular weather maker.
The main concerns with this setup will be damaging winds, large hail and the potential for a tornado or two. Here’s what the 4km NAM simulated radar model looks like for 1 am Friday. It paints an intense line of storms plowing east across the state:
As the front passes, it will take any leftover rain along with it. We’ll experience gradual clearing skies throughout our Friday, with highs limited to around 70˚. Much of the same can be expected on Saturday, before our next chance at showers and storms rolls in Sunday night into Monday.
That’s all I’ve got for the afternoon post. As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG, @wkuCHAOS and @WarrenCountyWx for the latest real-time weather information. Be prepared for our potential for severe weather this afternoon and Thursday night. Have a great rest of your Wednesday, and stay safe!