Southern Kentucky Drought

Earlier today, the United States Drought Monitor released their weekly update and areas of southern Kentucky, including Bowling Green, have now been classified in an area of moderate drought.

The area of moderate drought covers 14.48% of the state, and 38.9% of the state is considered at least abnormally dry. Radar estimated rainfall amounts line up very well with this area of moderate drought, check out this map showing our departure from normal precipitation over the past 60 days. Notice most of south central Kentucky is 2″-4″ below normal this summer.

Kentucky: Current 60-Day Departure from Normal Precipitation (Courtesy: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services)

Now let’s take a look at how the state is faring as a whole. This next map shows the percentage of pasture and range land in poor (dry) condition. Notice Kentucky has some of the worst land condition in the area right now.

Screenshot 2014-07-31 19.27.07 — Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center

Our soil moisture is not doing so great either. Here is a map showing the percentage of topsoil that is low on moisture. Kentucky currently has the driest topsoil east of the Mississippi River.

Screenshot 2014-07-31 19.36.45 — Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center

All of this drought data means one thing: we need rain!

Here is a look at precipitation estimates for the next two weeks from the GFS model. The model gives southern Kentucky 1″-1.5″ of rain through August 14. Hopefully this model is wrong, because it is going to take more rain than that to bust this drought.

gfs_namer_336_precip_ptot — 12Z GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation valid through 7am 8/14 (Courtesy: NOAA)