Saturday Afternoon Update

This Afternoon – Iso’d Showers, Breezy – High 37˚/ Tonight – Scat’d Snow Showers – Low 29˚

3pm 37˚ ~ 6pm 36˚ ~ 9pm 36˚ ~ 12am 34˚ ~ 3am 31˚ ~ 6am 29˚

Temperatures have remained a degree or two cooler than expected but otherwise the forecast is on track for the most part this afternoon. Clouds have moved in giving us overcast skies and the winds have been gusty, gusting to 29 at the airport in Bowling Green. A look at the current surface map indicates that disturbance and associated low pressure system just off to our northwest now moving into Illinois. Meanwhile, an area of snow moves across Illinois and into Indiana. There is an area of precipitation showing up on radar that is now entering western Kentucky as seen below, however little of this band is reaching the ground due to the very dry air currently in place. The same goes for the precipitation showing up over our area.

This band will bring the chance of a few showers as it arrives this afternoon likely around or a little after 6 pm. I can’t rule out a few flakes of snow or maybe even a sleet pellet with this band however those chances are minimal. Really any precipitation with the band at all will remain very light. Models seem to agree in a slight break in the precipitation behind the initial band before some widely scattered snow showers move in as shown by the NAM model below*. Current radar trends back over Missouri tend to agree with a break as well. Snow showers could be mixed with some light rain at first.

Again precipitation will remain light in general not to mention temperatures are expected to be just above freezing when most of the precipitation falls. That does not mean extra caution shouldn’t be taken when driving overnight into the morning as it only takes a little snow to create some travel headaches. The widely scattered snow showers could linger into the morning hours Sunday before skies clear out for tomorrow. Total accumulation could be as little as nothing, while a few isolated locations could see up to an inch. It seems that most locations shouldn’t see much more than a dusting however.

Sunday – AM Flurries/Mostly Sunny – High 39˚/ Sunday Night – Clear – Low 30˚

The clouds and any lingering scattered snow showers/flurries should move out before 10 am leaving us with a mostly sunny to sunny afternoon. It will be a little cool, but otherwise it should be an overall nice day on Sunday. Skies will remain clear into Sunday night with southwesterly winds bringing in warmer air and thus temperatures will not be all that cold by Monday morning, relatively speaking.

Monday – Partly Sunny – High 45˚/ Monday Night – Iso’d Snow Showers – Low 24˚

Monday will start off fairly nice under mostly sunny skies but it will not take long for clouds to increase. A cold front is expected to move through our area during the day Monday and thus a few clouds will move in with the front. Clouds will further increase during the afternoon with yet another disturbance which is expected to slide into the Ohio River Valley during the overnight hours. Again this disturbance brings another chance for at least some isolated light snow showers Monday night. No need to mention accumulation talk this far out, but you might say we’ve been there and done that. Much colder air slides in behind the front that passes on Monday which will make for a cold midweek.

That’s all for today but be sure to follow @Wx_Or_Not on twitter for real time updates. Have a great Saturday afternoon/evening.

*Note (6:08 pm): Edited out “after 10 pm” because precipitation behind the gap is moving in fairly quickly.