Sunny and Cool Friday

Good morning, friends, and welcome back to wxornotBG! After some much needed rain earlier this week, we had a beautiful, but chilly Thursday. We will have a sunny and cool Friday to end the work-week.

Frost Advisory Ending This Morning

The National Weather Service in Louisville issued a Frost Advisory for Barren and Edmonson counties until 8 AM this morning.

Frost Advisory ends at 8 AM this morning.

Frost Advisories are put into effect until the growing season is considered over. We are not quite there yet, so make sure to protect your sensitive plants.

Friday Forecast Calls For Chilly

If you haven’t made your first pot of chili for the fall season yet, today might be a good time to do so. High pressure remains in place over the WABBLES region, so we’ll see more sunny skies.

With light winds predominately out of the southeast, our temperatures will only reach the neighborhood of 65-68ºF. Yesterday only reached 62ºF, so we should be a tad warmer, but still cool. Normal highs for this time of October are around 71ºF, so the forecast is just slightly cooler than normal.

If you make chili, don't spill it like Kevin did. (Giphy) — If you make chili, don’t spill it like Kevin did. (Giphy)

As we move into the evening hours and overnight, skies will remain calm and clear. With calm winds continuing, we can expect our low temperatures to drop to a chilly 42ºF. We should be slightly warmer than we were last night, so a second Frost Advisory probably won’t be needed.

Complicated Weather All Around

Tomorrow will start off the weekend nice and sunny. However, we have our eyes on two separate systems. The tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico will be working its way into the southeast portion of the US. We also have an atmospheric disturbance (trough, pronounced “trof”) over the central plains working towards the Ohio Valley.

KY will be in between two systems on Saturday. (Pivotal Weather)

The trough in the central plains will bring rain showers to Missouri and Illinois, but the moisture looks to run out before getting to Kentucky. The tropical system, officially known as Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is expected to move across the southeast.

GFS showing both systems missing KY on Saturday. (Pivotal Weather)

The GFS thinks we will remain dry and miss both systems, as seen above. The NAM disagrees, thinking that we could see some showers from the tropical system Saturday afternoon. We can’t completely rule out seeing showers, but the model disagreement surely doesn’t help.

Thinking about how complex weather can be. (Giphy)

The GFS is also thinking we should remain sunny for the afternoon homecoming football game at WKU. It picks up well on the two systems, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some cloudy skies tomorrow. The NAM disagrees with the GFS yet again on cloud cover, and brings in more clouds on Saturday.

Cloud Cover guidance from the GFS for Saturday. (Pivotal Weather)

As for temperatures, expect afternoon highs to be around 72ºF, which is normal for this time of year. Overnight, temperatures drop to around 49ºF, under some cloudy skies.

Quiet Sunday

The weather on Sunday will be much more quiet as we await the next system. Winds will be out of the south, helping to bring in some warmer air.

South winds on Sunday. (Pivotal Weather)

Expect afternoon highs to be around 75ºF, slightly warmer than normal. We will have another day of mostly sunny skies, with some afternoon clouds expected. An overall quiet day, which is perfect for watching football and enjoying the weekend. Overnight, skies will gradually become more cloudy as the next system approaches. Temperatures will be around 55ºF.

Monday Outlook

Our next real good chance of seeing some rain and maybe a few thunderstorms will come on Monday. A strong cold front will be making its way through the Ohio Valley. Strong low level winds will provide plenty of wind shear (change in wind speed and direction with height), but the amount of instability the atmosphere will have to play with looks to be low.

Sturdy line of showers and thunderstorms for Monday afternoon. (Pivotal Weather)

This will lead to more widespread showers and maybe a few scattered thunderstorms. Regardless, the low level winds will be moving pretty good, so we may see a Wind Advisory for Monday. Winds just above the surface will be in the 45-55 mph range, so surface winds will be around 30-35 mph

Strong winds on Monday. (Pivotal Weather)

We are still quite a few days out, so details will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.

That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a great Friday and weekend! Make sure to look for the Afternoon Video Update on Facebook and the Afternoon Weather Story on Twitter, only at @wxornotBG.