Improving Weather Through Mid Week

Real-Time Radar


Yesterday’s Weather

Yesterday’s weather went about like I expected it to. There were clouds throughout the morning, and then even isolated showers. However, once the clouds clear and the sun came out, our temps rose quickly upwards. We hit 70°F yesterday, a verification of our forecast!

Yesterday's climate report. h/t NWS Louisville
Yesterday’s climate report. h/t NWS Louisville

Forecast Summary

Today: Mostly cloudy, with on and off showers throughout the day. Highs around 63°F. Overnight, look for mostly cloudy skies, with isolated showers. Lows falling to 49°F.

  • Wake up: ☁️/🌧 52°F
  • Lunch hour: ☁️/🌧 60°F
  • Evening time: ☁️/iso’t🌧 59°F

Tomorrow: Cloudy in the morning, with showers possible, giving way to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Highs around 55°F⬇️. Overnight night, look for partly cloudy skies, with lows around 34°F.

  • Bus stop: ☁️/🌧49°F
  • Lunch hour: ☁️46°F
  • School is out: ⛅️45°F
  • Evening time: ⛅️42°F

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with highs around 51°F. Overnight, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies, with lows around 44°F.

  • Bus stop: 🌤 34°F
  • Lunch hour: 🌤 43°F
  • School is out: 🌤 51°F
  • Evening time: ⛅️ 48°F

Discussion

When you think about how dreary today, and much of tomorrow will be, just remember yesterday! We saw the sun, and it was awesome. Today? Not very similar, although, it will be warm!

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

Currently, a deepening surface low pressure system is propagating east-southeastward out of eastern Oklahoma. This is sightly offset from the deep and closed low and mid level lows in the atmosphere, helping to enhance the deepening of the surface low.

The surface low over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. h/t SPC
The surface low over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. h/t SPC

Ahead of this, we are in a weird position today. First of all, we are seeing easterly winds. It is pretty odd that we’re gonna see highs get as high as they’re forecast to get today, but that easterly flow will be advecting warm air into the region, and will help us rise into the 60s.

The 4km NAM thinks we'll get into the low 60s today. h/t pivotalweather.com
The 4km NAM thinks we’ll get into the low 60s today. h/t pivotalweather.com

Secondly, the models have really backed off on precipitation since yesterday morning. It was beginning to look like a real non-event yesterday morning, but nothing like what the models are showing now. The models are literally showing this first batch as being the only area of rainfall that we see. This is largely because of convection to our south, and because the better forcing is within this region.

The HRRR's depiction of the expected precipitation today. h/t pivotalweather.com
The HRRR’s depiction of the expected precipitation today. h/t pivotalweather.com
h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

We may still get clipped by the precip shield on the northwestern side of the low tomorrow, but I wouldn’t anticipate it. As the low passes to our south and east tonight, look for strong winds to begin to come from the northwest, cooling our temperatures down. Tonight’s low will be in the 40s. Tomorrow is weird about temps, though. At midnight, it will likely still be in the low to mid 50s, and that will be as high as it gets tomorrow.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

I know, that sucks. But that is the deal. It will be breezy during the morning hours, and much cooler. Anticipate temperatures remaining in the 40s for much of the day tomorrow, as clouds somewhat clear by the evening.

Not looking too warm tomorrow. h/t pivotalweather.com
Not looking too warm tomorrow. h/t pivotalweather.com

By Tuesday, the trough has move on out and another one is approaching. This will force a surface low to our west, and this should propagate towards us by Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. While the wind shift will be felt late in the day, I would expect temps to rise into the 50s during the afternoon, under partly cloudy skies.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

I don’t expect precip with that low pressure system, as moisture return will be very limited, and the low won’t have a ton to work with.


Today’s Key Points

  • Weather relatively improves by Midweek.
  • Cloudy and warm today; isolated showers
  • Skies clear by late tomorrow
  • Colder and windier tomorrow
  • Tuesday should be warmer and nicer overall
  • Cold by late week?

Also: keep the folks in the southeast in your thoughts and prayers today. As the strong low pressure system propagates into that region, a severe weather outbreak is anticipated across Florida and Georgia. The SPC has issued a High Risk for that region, the rarest of convective outlooks.

Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great day folks!