More Rain, and Wind, On They Way

Real-Time Radar


Yesterday’s Weather

Yesterday’s weather was actually…pretty nice! And wait! There were confirmed reports that the actual sun was shining bright during portions of the afternoon. I even saw it with my own two eyes! I feel like we hadn’t seen the sun in a very, very long time. It was starting to just feel like we may never see it again. But we did.

Yesterday's climate report. h/t NWS Louisville
Yesterday’s climate report. h/t NWS Louisville

Forecast Summary

Today: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs around 70°F. Overnight, look for cloudy skies, with rain possible late in the evening. Lows around 54°F.

  • Wake up: 🌥 57°F
  • Lunch hour: ⛅️ 65°F
  • Evening time: ⛅️ 66°F

Tomorrow: Cloudy, with rain throughout the day. Highs around 65°F. Overnight, look for mostly cloudy skies, and breezy, with rainfall remaining. Lows around 42°F.

  • Wake up: ☁️/🌧 55°F
  • Lunch hour: ☁️/🌧 63°F
  • Evening time: ☁️/🌧 61°F

Monday: Cool, windy and mostly cloudy, with isolated showers. Highs around 50°F⬇️. Overnight, look for clearing skies, with lows around 34°F.

  • Bus stop: ☁️ 42°F
  • Lunch hour: ☁️ 40°F
  • School is out: ☁️ 38°F
  • Evening time: ☁️ 37°F

Discussion

Wow, yesterday was a thrill, right? I mean, the sunshine and the nice temps…and the sunshine? I feel like we hadn’t seen the sun in daaaaaaays. That is likely because we hadn’t really seen the sun in days, but no matter. We will march on into this forecast with really the lack of hope that the sun returns within the next couple of days.

h/t giphy.com
h/t giphy.com

This forecast period is a little wild. The models are a bit all over the place with significant atmospheric features, and that translates to some uncertainty at the surface. The basics of this forecast: a deep, longwave trough is currently centered across the western US, with its trough axis extending from Oregon southeastward through central New Mexico.

The trough over the western US. h/t SPC
The trough over the western US. h/t SPC

The models are having a tough time with the development of this over the next couple of days, but basic signals of sensible weather is there, and that helps to make this forecast a bit simpler. The models bring the jet streak associated with this trough into southern Texas, with its exit region just along the central Gulf Coast by this evening.

The major jet streak associated with this trough will be centered along the Gulf Coast this evening. This will spark severe weather across the southeast, and help to force a surface low in the region as well. h/t pivotalweather.com
The major jet streak associated with this trough will be centered along the Gulf Coast this evening. This will spark severe weather across the southeast, and help to force a surface low in the region as well. h/t pivotalweather.com

As this does so, the mid and upper level trough will begin to close off, helping to deepen a surface low to our west by this evening. The jet streak energy will begin to propagate into the deep southeast, and northward into the Mid Atlantic states, helping to focus the low to our southeast by Sunday night and into Monday. This will be a deep low pressure system by that point, with a strong pressure gradient over our region on Monday morning.

The deep surface low associated with the strong mid and upper level trough is forecast to be over the Carolinas by Monday morning. h/t pivotalweather.com
The deep surface low associated with the strong mid and upper level trough is forecast to be over the Carolinas by Monday morning. h/t pivotalweather.com

So, what does this mean? Well, first of all, today is going to be niceish. We may see isolated showers this morning, but otherwise, models don’t paint rainfall in our region until late tonight and early Sunday morning. We’ll likely see clouds for a few hours this morning, and then back to partly sunny skies this afternoon.

Clouds are moving into the region early this morning. h/t COD Weather
Clouds are moving into the region early this morning. h/t COD Weather

Tomorrow and Monday look to be pretty terrible weather wise. Rain is expected both days, with more intermittent showers expected during the day on Monday. It will be much cooler and windier, as well, on the northwestern side of the low pressure. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 60s, but will likely only be in the low 40s during the day on Monday.

Me looking at the forecast on Monday after the nice weather today:
Me looking at the forecast on Monday after the nice weather today:

Today’s Key Points

  • Very nice today; Partly sunny and warm
  • Clouds increase this evening and overnight
  • Rain likely begins before sunrise tomorrow
  • Showery all day; event totals in the 0.5″-1.0″ range
  • Showery, windy and cool on Monday
Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @wxornotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great day folks!