A Guide To The Confusing SPC Outlooks

Recently (October), the Storm Prediction Center redid their convective outlooks, removing the “See Text” portion of this, and added the “Marginal Risk” and the “Enhanced Risk” to the typical risks. Though this makes a higher end slight risk (enhanced risk) more noticeable, the added outlooks just make the map confusing.

This is why I am here. Severe storm season is upon us, and there is no better time to have a very confusing entity explained in some depth! This update to the outlooks was received with many mixed emotions, with some thinking that it would clear up issue and some saying that it would only make it more confusing.

Well, I have found that when this has been used this year, it has only added confusion to the convective outlooks. Adding additional layers only makes things more complicated, and it makes it harder to read. An example was last Wednesday’s severe weather outbreak over the southern Plains.

Look at how this is laid out with all of the layers on top. This just makes it hard for many to read, and it is just kinda overwhelming. So, here is how you should interpret these. Always remember that even if you are in a low end Slight risk, you are still at a risk for severe weather!

• A Marginal Risk just simply means that you have a lower risk for severe weather that day. It is shown on the SPC maps using a dark green color. You may see some small hail, some high winds, but it shouldn’t be that widespread or long-lived. These days typically lack several features meteorologists use to  gage severe weather events.
• A Slight Risk is when you have a decent shot at seeing some severe weather. It is shown on a map using a yellow color. You may have an instance or two of some larger hail or damaging winds, but it won’t be too widespread yet. These days see isolated severe storms more often than not, but remember a slight risk has just as much risk as an enhanced or moderate risk do. Your guard should be a bit higher on these days. Keep an eye on the forecasts to make sure that the risk doesn’t heighten more.
• An Enhanced Risk should peak your interest a bit more. It is shown on a map using an orange color, and this risk means that severe weather looks like it could be fairly widespread across the area and could feature some significant events. We could see damaging hail across the area, and some stronger winds. Tornadoes are possible in all of these and the risk for those is always present within severe thunderstorms as tornadoes can be spawned suddenly and without warning,
• A Moderate risk is where things get pretty serious. It is shown on a map using a red color, and if you are this risk, you’ve gotta stay very weather aware for the majority of the day. These days typically are going to feature an outbreak of severe thunderstorms and will feature damaging hail, very strong winds and could have several significant tornadoes across the area. These are the days in which most meteorologists will give several days advance of as they are easier to pick out on the models and typically (not always) feature more widespread severe weather.
• A High Risk is the highest risk you can have. It is shown by using a pink color on the maps, and these days are the most widespread severe weather days. You’ll likely see destructive winds over a large area, some violent tornadoes or extremely large hail, and all of this creates for a dangerous day. These are relatively rare in occurrence, but you’ll know when they are issued. They are well advertised, and you need to have your things in order the night before in case something happens.

So, given that this can be a lot of information to take in and remember, a quick and easy way to remember the severity is to remember the colors. From least severe (1) to most severe (5) it goes:

1. Dark Green
2. Yellow
3. Orange
4. Red
5. Pink

However, don’t just base your safety and overall risk on these categories and colors. Severe weather can take lives and destroy property in all 5 of these categories. The Joplin tornado in 2011 occurred in an Enhanced Risk and there were tornadoes in October last year here in KY that occurred in an area that began in a Marginal risk.

So, this is your quick and easy guide to differentiating between the SPC outlooks for this spring. Always be sure to be weather aware by checking the local NWS pages and by checking back here on WxOrNot for the latest details regarding any severe weather.