This Afternoon: AWESOME / Thursday: Thunderboomers

This Afternoon – Exquisite – High 72˚ / Tonight – Iso’d Storms – Low 54˚

This afternoon will be another beauty.  Go outside and see for yourself.

Tonight, high pressure that’s provided us this wonderful weather will scoot to our east, allowing for southerly flow to pump warm, moist air into south central Kentucky.

This will result in isolated storms popping up before daybreak on Thursday.  The HRRR model thinks we could see a few storms roll through around 3am.  Severe weather is not anticipated…

Thu 4/2 – Scat’d Storms – High 77˚ / Thu Night – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 63˚

As inclement weather ingredients begin to align across the area throughout our Thursday, a potent cold front will be closing in from our northwest.  This will create increasing rain and storm chances as the day progresses, with a few strong to marginally severe storms possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

The latest SPC outlook below places us in a marginal risk for severe weather during this time.  This will not be anything like a severe weather outbreak, but we can’t rule our a few storms meeting severe criteria, with heavy rain, large hail and damaging winds the potential threat(s):

The following NAM 4km Simulated Radar Model loops every three hours from 12pm Thursday through 6am Friday.  It should give you a better idea of how this system will behave:

Fri 4/3 – Storms likely (Potentially Severe) – High 70˚ / Fri Night – Scat’d Storms – Low 37˚

A complex forecast is in store on Friday, as we’ll have the potential to see severe thunderstorms develop Friday afternoon.  A surface low will spin up over Arkansas, then track northeast toward the area.

Just how far north this low tracks will determine if we experience inclement weather.  If we get sunshine early in the day, our chances for strong storms will increase, as it will destabilize our atmosphere.

The storm prediction center has us under a “Slight Risk” for severe weather Friday.  We’ve been included in a 15% probability of seeing severe weather occur within 25 miles of any given location:

What’s a “Slight Risk” actually mean?  Our friends at @NashSevereWx sum it up nicely:

What’s “slight risk” (misleading name IMO) mean? One interpretation here: pic.twitter.com/zcl5yfcAdu

— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) April 1, 2015

Heavy rain will also be a concern Thursday and Friday, as the initial cold front takes its sweet time plowing southeast through the area.  Take a look at the latest QPF forecast, valid for total rainfall amounts through early Saturday:

If this comes to fruition, we could see a few areas dealing with flash flooding issues, especially those along the northwest tier of south central Kentucky.  With the numerous threats we have in store over the upcoming days, be sure to stay connected to the blog for the latest updates.

That’s all I’ve got for the afternoon update.  As always, you can keep up with the latest real-time weather info by following @WxOrNotBG, @wkuCHAOS and @WarrenCountyWx.  Stay safe, and have a great rest of your Wednesday.