Winter Storm Update

Bowling Green Weather Real Time Radar:

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**WINTER STORM UPDATE**

Reminder: A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 1 AM Monday to 12 AM Tuesday for Allen, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Logan, Simpson and Warren County

This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a winter storm is producing or is forecast to produce heavy snow or significant ice accumulations. The criteria for this warning can vary from place to place.Confidence is increasing that a major winter storm could affect the region.

Our criteria is 4+” of snow or ice.  We’ll be dealing with MUCH more than that.

Bottom Line: This could be the biggest snow storm in a decade.

Models continue to point towards a major winter storm for much of the state. An area of low pressure located to our southwest will generally overspread moisture into the area.  The GFS model below, valid for 6am Monday, illustrates this nicely.

Simultaneously, a piece of upper level energy will move out of the northwest, causing these systems to phase. This will lead to widespread divergence aloft, as well as lift, conducive for significant snowfall rates and amounts.

The temperature profile tells us nearly all of the precipitation that falls will be snow. There are still some question marks regarding the exact time that the snow begins. There is some relatively dry air across the region, which will make things a bit tricky. Most models like the idea that light snow beginning around 6 PM. Again, because there is dry air in place, I don’t think we’ll see the heavy stuff until Monday. With that being said, any scattered activity that moves through this evening will stick to the ground, resulting in minor accumulations.

The snow, when it does in fact begin, should be relatively light. Intensification of the snow will occur as we near sunrise, as the low moves south of the region. This will allow a healthy stream of moisture to be advected northward into the area.

It appears the heaviest snow will fall during the morning hours, ~5AM to 11 AM Monday.  The latest HRRR simulated radar model below, valid for 4am Monday, shows the heavy stuff rolling in from the west:

During this time, snowfall rates around 1-2″/hour (!!!) can be expected, leading to fast accumulations, as well as low visibility. The snow should gradually come to an end during the late afternoon/early evening hours Monday.

ACCUMULATIONS

As far as accumulations, I’m going to do this like we did this morning. We have very high confidence (90%) that at least 4″ of snow will fall across the majority of south central Kentucky. There’s also high confidence (80%) that at least 6″ will fall across portions the area.

We have split confidence (50%) that at least 10″ will fall. We have low confidence (30%) that at least 12″ will fall; very low confidence (20%) that at least 15″ will fall across portions of the viewing area.

This gives you the idea of the confidence we have at different accumulations across the region. Below is a “worst-case” scenario map, highlighting the low confidence, high accumulations.

If the above pans out, this will be a very dangerous weather situation. With a heavy snow pack, we’re likely to experience record lows over the upcoming days. This means the snow won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. Travel will be impossible in these conditions, so prepare yourself for some cabin fever.

The SREF snowfall probability map thinks we have a great chance at seeing significant snowfall amounts. The latest run paints a 75% probability of us seeing at least a foot of snow. Now that’s impressive:

Talk about eye candy to a snow lover…

Please make sure you are prepared for several days without runs to the grocery store. Prepare now, before this weather maker hits. Make sure you have alternate sources of heat in case the power fails. As previously mentioned, dangerously cold temperatures will come to the region, so keep you faucets running slowly to prevent icing.

As always, stay connected to @WxOrNotBG & @WarrenCountyWx for the latest real-time weather information.  Everyone have a safe night.