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Real Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:
*Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM Sunday to 12 AM Tuesday for Allen, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Logan, Simpson and Warren County*
This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a winter storm is producing or is forecast to produce heavy snow or significant ice accumulations. The criteria for this warning can vary from place to place.Confidence is increasing that a major winter storm could affect the region.
For south central Kentucky, this criteria is 4+”. It looks like we could be dealing with significantly more.
Today 2/15 – Mostly Cloudy; PM Snow Showers – High 24° / Tonight – Snow; Heavy at Times – Low 17°
Let’s start off with what we have high confidence in. One thing we are highly confident of is that it is going to be cold today. Highs will struggle to reach 25° due to surface winds on the order of 5 to 10 mph and out of the north to northeast, as well as flow aloft from the northwest. Conditions may also be partly cloudy to start the day.
As the day progresses, overrunning moisture will occur as a low pressure system develops and intensifies to the southwest of the region. This means moisture is being advected into the region, thus we’ll see more clouds develop throughout the day.
Because temperatures are so cold at the surface, as well as pretty cold aloft, it won’t take much moisture for precipitation to begin to form. As of this writing, it is very hard to determine when precipitation starts falling.
Some data makes this occur around 3 PM this afternoon, whereas other data says this occurs around 3 AM Monday. This much disagreement in the models makes it very hard to determine when the snow will start. Below is a comparison between two models.
As of now, I’m willing to split the difference and say flakes could be falling by 6 PM, but keep in mind that some of the models are suggesting earlier. Because the conditions at the surface are so cold, snow will stick to surfaces immediately, so keep that in mind if you’re out and about today. The morning commute to church should be fine, but evening services may be a different story. Again, this will be fine tuned as more data becomes available.
One thing that does look certain is that heavy snow looks like a good possibility during the late night hours and early morning hours on Monday. Again, accumulations will happen pretty quickly, as well as reduced visibility, so use caution when driving. Lows will settle into the upper teens.
Monday 2/15 – AM Heavy Snow; PM Snow Showers – High 25° / Mon Night – Flurries – Low 15°
The heavy band of snow will likely continue into the morning hours on Monday. As of this writing, the heaviest snow looks to be between 5 and 10 AM. During this time, visibility will remain low, and significant accumulations could occur in the heaviest of the snow band.
↑ That’s Impressive
Snow should begin to taper off across the region as the moisture pulls out Monday evening. Snow showers could continue into the the afternoon hours. Again, some models push the snow on out after noon, others linger the snow around for the afternoon. Nevertheless, the heaviest of snow will fall before noon. Afternoon highs will get to around 25°.
So, let’s talk accumulation. I’m going to approach this a little differently due to the potential severity of the snow event. My confidence is very high for at least 1″ of snow for Bowling Green. My confidence is high for at least 4″ of snow in Bowling Green. My confidence is medium for at least 8″ of snow. My confidence is low for anything over 12″ in Bowling Green.
A lot of the model guidance that came in last night suggested anywhere from 7″ to 15″ for Bowling Green. But, climatology suggests that 8″ snows are kind of rare for Bowling Green, thus I’m a little hesitant on forecasting extreme amounts.
Bottom line: there’s a legit chance Bowling Green receives 6-10+” of snow, but there’s also a chance for less than that, especially if the air is drier than expected. Intense, narrow banding will lead to absurd snow amounts for someone in our region, regardless. What you get will greatly depend on where this banding sets up.
With this much snow possible, prepare BEFORE IT GETS HERE. Make your grocery runs this afternoon and make sure you have a way of staying warm in case of power outages.
Snow flurries may continue into the overnight hours, but these should not accumulate to much. Lows will around 15°.
Tuesday 2/16 – Mostly Cloudy; PM Flurries – High 25° / Tue Night – Snow Showers; Cold – Low 7°
The amount of snow we receive tonight and Monday will have great impact on the temperature department on Tuesday. As of now, I think mid 20’s are a good bet under mostly cloudy skies. However, a snowpack of several inches will cause this to drop. Some afternoon and evening flurries may also be possible.
Tuesday night may bring a return to some snow as a few snow showers may form along the periphery of high pressure to the north of the region. Again, temperatures are hard to forecast because we aren’t too sure how much snow will be on the ground. If there’s a significant amount of snow on the ground, we’ll likely dip into the low single digits. As of now, I’m sticking to around 7°.
Significant cold may be possible Wednesday night, especially if we still have a lot of snow on the ground. Some models are suggesting we may find our way below zero. Gusty winds will also be possible on Wednesday night, which could yield wind chills down between -10° and -20°.
Stay tuned to the blog for more updates, as they’ll be coming throughout the day. As always, follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Have a great day!