Cold and Snow and more Cold!

Real Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

Valentines Day – Afternoon Snow – High 38° / Tonight – Clear & Cold – Low 10°

Happy Valentines Day! Hopefully everyone loves date night in the cold because tonight will be just that! Light to moderate snow showers will move into the area around lunch to early afternoon with an approaching cold front. Temperatures will be above freezing throughout much of that time and will keep accumulations to a minimum. However, the temperature will drop rapidly with the arrival of the snow and the back end of the snow may begin to stick. Overall, expect anywhere from a dusting to a half inch of accumulation with isolated higher totals, especially north of Bowling Green.

The GFS shows accumulations up to an inch.

Sunday – Cold – High 22° / Sun Night – Snow Likely – Low 18°

Sunday will be downright COLD! A lot of discrepancy in the models have made the Sunday through Tuesday time frame quite challenging.  The shortwave set to bring snow to the area Sunday may be a bit weaker than the past several model runs have shown.  The latest runs of the NAM and GFS  models have come into pretty good agreement and show a weaker system Sunday into Monday with a much larger system on its heels. I will touch on that in Monday’s forecast.

Snow still looks likely Sunday evening and overnight, with moderate snow possible at times. The NAM, which is a little more bullish with the precip. than the GFS, shows a large precip shield across the area.

It is important to realize the models have had significant struggles with this system so far and the amount of snow we will see Sunday night is in no way set in stone.

Here is a quick look at the NAM (first) and GFS (second) snowfall accumulation maps through Monday morning. They are both very similar with only 40 – 50 miles difference in placement.

Monday – AM Snow Showers – High 30° / Mon Night – Sct’d Flurries – Low 18°

One thing we must watch is the phasing of the Sunday system with the southern low. With a weaker system Sunday, the potential for a farther west phasing with the southern low Monday exists. This will allow for a stronger and more northward track, possibly bringing more snow to the region.

The GFS model has been hinting at this for quite some time and has trended northward toward the Ohio/Tennessee valley for the heaviest snowfall over the past 4 runs. We are just able to see out til Tuesday with the NAM model, and it aligns very well with the GFS. This will need to be watched over the coming days to see how it plays out.

The NAM model shows the potential for a large system to swing close by Bowling Green Monday evening into Tuesday. It will be cold enough for all snow if we do see any precipitation during this time.

Once again, the potential for an accumulating snow is present Sunday into Tuesday. We will continue to track the changes in the upcoming forecast to keep you as up to date as possible.

That is all for today! Be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and@WarrenCountyWX for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Enjoy your day!