Strong Storm Potential

A line of storms has organized to our west; tracking northeast ahead of an advancing cold front toward the area.  This line should continue to strengthen over the short term, thanks to a low level jet that’s intensifying as we speak.  Here is how our conditions are shaping up as of 7:15pm:

As the night progresses, I expect this line to lose some of its potency as it closes in on the area.  With that being said, we’ll need to keep a close eye on things as we progress into the predawn hours of our Friday.

My reasoning behind the expected weakening is a dewpoint drop just west of the area.  Notice the mid – upper 60 readings to our west, while we sit under values closer to ~60˚.  Dewpoints are an important factor when analyzing the potential for strong/severe convection, thus, I expect at least some weakening before it arrives.

There is currently a Tornado Watch in effect for far western Kentucky until 2am.  The image below shows you the counties in Kentucky that are included:

Main threats with this system will be strong winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.  Rainfall amounts are estimated to range between .75-1.25″.  A few localized areas may see more.  Although marginal, we can’t completely rule out the threat of an isolated tornado or two.

The HRRR model has been consistent with the timing it expects the brunt of the activity to move through.  It thinks we can expect arrival between 2 – 6am.  The following model loops every hour from 3am – 7am.  It should give you a better idea of how this system may behave:

Hit & miss showers/storms will hang around throughout the start of our Friday, with the cold front not advancing to our east until late morning/early afternoon.  Much cooler conditions will be in store, as highs will be limited to the mid 70s.  Southerly winds will be a nuisance, pestering at ~15-20mph.

An even colder spell will ensue for the weekend, with Saturday highs limited to the low 60s; overnight lows dipping into the upper 30s.  Winds on Saturday will howl out of the northwest at 15-25+mph.  Layer up if you’re going out.

That’ll wrap up this post, folks.  I’ll be updating on twitter from this point forward @WxorNotBG.  Should any watches be issued, I’ll be back with another post.  Have a safe night, and thanks for reading.