Thursday’s Bowling Green Weather Update

Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

This Afternoon – Increasing Clouds, Breezy; Warm – High 90º / Tonight – Rain & Thunderstorms Likely – Low 66º

3pm 90º – 6pm 83º – 9pm 77º – 12am 73º – 3am 70º – 6am 66º

It’s been a warm day for all of southern Kentucky as afternoon temperatures have soared into the upper 80’s to right around 90 degrees. Plenty of sunshine has prevailed for much of the day but cloud cover will be on the increase from our west through this evening.

A strong low pressure and its associated cold front will work eastward from the Great Plains into the Ohio Valley region late tonight. As this front edges closer, a few isolated showers and storms will remain possible for the late afternoon and evening period. Most activity should remain west of I-65 through tonight, but we cannot rule some isolated storms across southern Kentucky.

As the front advances across the region, a line of showers and storms will develop along and just ahead of this boundary. Now, early on these storms will look mean. Strong-severe storms are anticipated across far western Kentucky but will decrease in intensity through the overnight period. This factor will limit our severe weather threat significantly with meager instability and wind shear.

Here’s the latest categorical and wind outlook from the SPC for tonight’s/Friday’s storms. This goes along well with my current thoughts as the severe weather remains just to our west and the slight risk does not include Bowling Green.

 The SPC places Butler and Warren County under a 5% risk of seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of a given point tonight/tomorrow.

Main threats with any storm activity through tonight will be heavy rainfall, bouts of gusty winds and vivid lightning. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies during this period as temperatures drop into the mid 60’s.

 

Fri – Mostly Cloudy; Rain w/Embedded Storms Likely – High 76º / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy; Chilly – Low 45º

A bulk of the precipitation will arrive early Friday morning while lasting through late morning/early afternoon. The showers and storms will congeal into a line and track eastward across the state while decreasing in strength. With precipitable water values rising near two inches here in southern Kentucky, heavy rainfall will be a good bet. Gusty winds and lightning will be our other primary concerns. Here’s how the NAM 12z model breaks it down.

A few post frontal showers will linger across the area through late afternoon. The front will finally work east of southern Kentucky by Friday night as we begin to dry out and cool off. Total rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50” – 1.0” will help bring our slightly dry conditions up to par. Highs Friday afternoon will struggle to reach the mid 70’s while lows drastically dip into the mid 40’s.

 

Sat – Mostly Sunny; Chilly – High 60º / Sat Night – Partly Cloudy; Cold – Low 40º

We’ll enter the weekend on a much cooler note. The cold front that brought rainfall to the state will work off the eastern coast as a November-like air mass settles into the Commonwealth. Highs will struggle to reach the 60 degree mark Saturday afternoon despite the ample amounts of sunshine.

A few clouds work in by Saturday night as temperatures drop off. Lows will dip right around 40 degrees bringing the coolest air we’ve had this season. All I can say is…bundle up!

That does it for now, folks. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time Bowling Green weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter. Stay weather aware!