Scat’d Storm Chances

Real-Time Regional Radars:

Today 5/10 – Showers & Storms Likely– High 76˚ / Tonight – Partly Cloudy; Iso’d Shower or Storm – Low 60˚

10am 67˚ – 1pm 72˚ – 4pm 76˚ – 7pm 73˚ – 10pm 68˚

Currently a stationary frontal boundary is draped just to our north. As a result, our area has become the focus for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms this morning. See the regional radars above to track them as they move through.

Here’s the current surface setup as of ~7:15am:

While these storms have little severe threat, a few of them could be strong producing gusty winds and possibly even some small hail. Otherwise there will be a lot of lightning and heavy rainfall. When thunder roars… go indoors. If you can hear thunder you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

As for the heavy rainfall, some locations have already received 0.5″-1″+ of rainfall this morning. With more heavy rainfall moving in from the southwest, we’ll need to watch the potential for at least some minor flooding, especially in the normal flood prone areas.

Scattered showers & storms are possible right through the afternoon before most of us should dry out, say generally by 6pm. This will leave us with partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight, and while rain chances are low, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out.

Sun – Partly Sunny; Iso’d Storms – High 83˚ /  Sun Night – Partly Clear – Low 66˚

There will probably be a good deal of sunshine for your Mother’s Day despite a continued chance for isolated to scattered storms. It’s hard to pinpoint a time as these could pop up in the area at most any time during the day tomorrow. However, activity would be mostly likely during the early afternoon hours.

Again, by 6pm our rain chances should be greatly decreased. Overnight skies will try to clear out somewhat; meanwhile, we’ll hang onto mild to warm lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Mon – Partly Sunny; Iso’d PM Storms – High 85˚ / Mon Night – Partly Clear; Iso’d Storms – Low 67˚

By Monday we’ll be watching the next storm system approach from the west. Forecast models tend to hold off most of the focused areas of rainfall until Tuesday and Wednesday with this system however.

You can see the low pressure system and cold front off to our west in this forecast surface analysis valid for Sunday evening courtesy of the WPC:

With that said, there could be a few isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms around Monday afternoon but it will otherwise be a warm, partly sunny day.

That’s all I’ve got for now… check out the radars above to keep up with the passing storms. Also be sure to keep up with @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWx on twitter to stay updated with the latest weather conditions. Stay dry & thanks for reading.