Severe Weather Afternoon Update

Real-time Observation for Bowling Green, Ky:

Real-time Regional Radars:

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*Severe weather threat continues this afternoon*

Good afternoon. The large area of showers & storms that impacted our area earlier has moved off to our east. Skies are struggling to clear behind this area of precipitation. This is good news, as clouds will help limit instability in our atmosphere. With that being said, the dynamics with this system are still strong and severe weather is still on the table.

All eyes are to the south and west this afternoon as we watch for potential storm development that is expected to congeal into a line. If able to organize, this line will push east across the area bringing threats for isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

Tonight, the line of thunderstorms will push east past the area and precipitation should end before midnight. Behind the line of thunderstorms we will actually see some clearing, which will allow lows to drop to around 60 degrees.

Let’s take a look at some of the convective outlooks issued by the SPC for this afternoon. The most recent update keeps us in an elevated risk for severe storms (yellow shaded area) for the rest of the afternoon with a moderate risk located to our south.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook updated at 11:30 AM. (Courtesy: NOAA) — Afternoon Update of the Day 1 Convective Outlook. (Courtesy: NOAA)

The SPC has lowered our tornado threat this afternoon. They now say there’s a 5% chance you will see a tornado within 25 miles of your location.

Afternoon Update of the Day 1 Tornado Outlook. (Courtesy: NOAA)

The SPC has also lowered our threat for damaging winds this afternoon, giving us a 15% probability of seeing severe winds within 25 miles of a point.

Afternoon Update of the Day 1 Damaging Wind Outlook. (Courtesy: NOAA)

The SPC still thinks we have a good shot at seeing large hail (≥1″ in diameter). They have us in a hatched 30% probability of seeing large hail within 25 miles of a point. The hatched area signifies a 10% or greater probability of seeing hail that is ≥2″ in diameter. Lets hope we don’t have to deal with anything like that.

Afternoon Update of the Day 1 Hail Outlook. (Courtesy: NOAA)

Tue – Partly Cloudy, Afternoon Showers & Storms – High 78˚ / Tue Night – Partly Cloudy, Iso’d Showers & Storms – Low 49˚

Tuesday will start off dry under partly cloudy skies as winds from the south keep our temperatures in the 70s. The upper level low to our northwest will spin another round of showers and storms into our area by tomorrow afternoon. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, we will see marginal instability and steep lapse rates and the threat for a few storms to produce some large hail.

The Storm Prediction Center has included us in the slight risk for severe weather tomorrow and we are in a 15% chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. (Courtesy: NOAA)

The showers and storms will move off to the northeast as we head into tomorrow night, and by the time the rain is all said and done we could see another half inch of rainfall tomorrow which is not good considering all the rain that we have had today.

That’s all I’ve got for this afternoon. Stay abreast of the severe weather situation and make sure you have multiple ways to receive any warnings that may get issued this afternoon. For more frequent updates during today’s storms be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter.