Thursday Afternoon Update

Thursday afternoon…it’s all downhill from here.

This Afternoon 3/27 – Scat’d Showers, BREEZY – High 59˚ / Tonight – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 52˚

3pm 59˚ ~ 6pm 61˚ ~ 9pm 58˚ ~ 12am 55˚ ~ 3am 55˚ ~ 6am 58˚

Southerly winds of 15-30+mph have pestered south central Kentucky today, and this will continue to be the case through this afternoon.  Looking at the current surface analysis, a tightening pressure gradient (illustrated by the closely aligned green lines) is responsible for our swift breezes:

Although we’ve had to combat the winds, they are the reason temperatures have rebounded across our proximity.  Values currently located in the upper 50s should rise into the lower 60s by late this afternoon.

Along with increasing our temperatures, moisture parameters have also amped up thanks to the southerly flow.  As a result, expect to see scattered showers & storms develop over the next few hours, which will become more widespread as we get into tonight.  This will be in response to a cold front approaching from our west.

The NAM simulated radar model below is valid for 11pm, and paints a wet picture across the viewing area:

Fri – Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 69˚ / Fri Night – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 53˚

This boundary (cold front) won’t be in any hurry Friday, and is expected to eventually stall out across the area by Friday afternoon.  As a result, our forecast will keep scattered showers & storms around through the last day of the work week.  Southerly winds of 10-20mph will continue to supply very comfortable temperatures, which will top out in the mid – upper 60s.

A more significant chance at seeing rainfall will arrive Friday night, as another area of low pressure forms to our southwest, and cuts a path northeast along the boundary (cold front).

The SPC has removed south central Kentucky from a “Slight Risk” for severe weather on Friday night in their latest outlook, however, a few storms could be on the strong side, producing wind gusts of 30-40mph, frequent lightning, torrential rainfall, and small hail.

You can see the most recent SPC outlook below, which says we’ll have a 5% probability of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of a given location Friday night:

Sat – Scat’d AM Showers, Decreasing Clouds – High 60˚ / Sat Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 34˚

By the time this system finally moves out Saturday morning, most of us will have picked up 1-2″ of rain from the event as a whole (tonight – Saturday).  The image below displays expected rainfall amounts through 7pm Saturday night:

Localized areas could see even see more.  Luckily, things will quiet down late Saturday after a very active end to the work week, with sunny & pleasant conditions in store for our Sunday.

We’ll continue to monitor our rain chances & storm potential as the latest data becomes available.  As always, for more frequent updates, check out @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter.  That will wrap up the afternoon forecast discussion.  Have a great rest of your Thursday.  Stay dry, and thanks for reading.