Rain Chances Tonight

Today 2/28 – Increasing Clouds – High 47˚ / Tonight – Scat’d Showers – Low 37˚

6am 18˚ ~ 9am 30˚ ~ 12pm 42˚ ~ 3pm 47˚ ~ 6pm 45˚ ~ 9pm 41˚

High pressure will be located to our northeast today, allowing for winds to shift out of the south across our proximity.  This will keep a mix of sun and clouds around through the start of the day, with clouds increasing as we get into the afternoon.

Overnight, a system will advance northeast over south central Kentucky, bringing with it chances of scattered, light rain showers.  Rainfall amounts should only reach .10″ at best.  Here’s a look at the current surface conditions:

Sat – Partly Cloudy – High 56˚ / Sat Night – Scat’d Showers – Low 40˚

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will remain in place as we start the weekend.  A few lingering showers will be possible in the early morning, but we should dry out by the afternoon.  A cold front will be parked to our northwest, creating  southerly winds that will allow temperatures to rebound into the mid – upper 50s by mid afternoon.

Our next disturbance will begin to move in on Saturday night, as the cold front orients itself along/just south of the Ohio River.  This will allow scattered showers to reenter the forecast late Saturday night.

Sun – Rain Showers Likely – High 53˚ / Sun Night – Scat’d Wintry Mix – Low 30˚

Low pressure system will evolve to our southwest, while a shortwave disturbance approaches the area.  A combination of forcing and increasing moisture will cause widespread rain showers to engulf the region, with rainfall amounts potentially topping 1″.  The GFS Precip model below, valid for 12pm Sunday, indicates very damp conditions across our coverage area, with the wintry mess situated just to our north:

Sunday night is when the fun will begin.  Cold air will sag southeast, along with the cold front, creating a potential for a transition to a wintry mix late.

This system is very tricky, and any slight shift in it’s path will mean major changes to the forecast.  As for now, we look to miss out on the majority of the wintry stuff, with the freeze line parking just to our north.  Let’s hope the upcoming trends remain that way.  Temperatures will continue to fall throughout Monday, possibly giving us a period of light snow.  I’ll hold off on any accumulation talk for now.  Please stay up to date on this pending weather situation.

I’ll continue to monitor this weather maker as the latest data becomes available.  As always, stay in touch with @WarrenCountyWx & @Wx_Or_Not for the latest in real-time weather info.  Have a great end to the work week.  Thanks for reading.