Winter Storm Hoopla


Grab a chair and some popcorn.  This next system’s worth watching.

Tonight – Iso’d Rain & Snow Showers – Low 35˚

A weak disturbance will pass northeast across our proximity tonight, creating chances at light rain & snow showers.  These will be few and far between, with no real impacts expected.  I fully anticipate the vast majority of us remaining cool and dry.

Sat – Iso’d AM Rain Showers – High 57˚ / Sat Night – Scat’d Rain Showers – Low 45˚

Leftover moisture could allow for a stray shower or two during the morning hours of our Saturday.  Outside of that, I expect partly to mostly cloudy skies to join highs in the upper 50s.  We can thank our soaring temperatures to a cold front that will be approaching from our northwest.  This will create southwesterly winds of 10-15mph, resulting in an increase in our temperatures.

Sun – Rain Showers Likely – High 48˚ / Sun Night – Wintry Mix Likely – Low 25˚

**Winter Storm Watch for Allen, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Logan, Simpson and Warren County from 6pm Sunday – 6pm Monday**

The approaching cold front will eventually stall across south central Kentucky as we get into Sunday.  Multiple waves of energy will travel along this boundary, combining with deep moisture to fire off widespread rain showers.

This forcing mechanism will slowly slide southeast throughout the day, with crashing temperatures filtering in behind it.  This will cause a changeover from all rain to a wintry mix of freezing rain/sleet & snow.

Those along the Ohio River could see a change as early as Sunday morning, with our area most likely seeing a changeover sometime after sunset.  The following GFS model loop is valid every 6 hours from 6am Sunday – 6am Monday.  It should give you a better idea of how this system may behave:

GFS Precip Loop Valid 6pm Sun - 6pm Mon
GFS Precip Loop Valid 6pm Sun – 6pm Mon

This wintry mix could last all Sunday night into Monday, with significant icing and minor snow accumulations not out of the question.  The latest Ice Accumulation Probability map from the WPC outlines our area in a Moderate Risk (at least 40% probability) for seeing ice accumulations ≥.25″ through this time:

Ice Accumulation Probability
Ice Accumulation Probability

Nothing is set in stone, as the models still do not seem to have a good handle on what’s taking place.  Just know that the potential is there for significant winter weather event to unfold.  We’ll have a much better idea on this system come tomorrow.

The National Weather Service has enough confidence in the models that they have issued a Winter Storm Watch for our entire area from 6pm Sunday through 6pm Monday evening.  Impacts regarding this weather maker could include travel complications, along with power outages.  Regardless if we get hit or not, please be prepared.

That’s all for the work week, folks.  Ryan Difani and myself will be here all weekend to keep you up to date on the latest regarding our pending winter weather situation.  Until then, stay connected to @WarrenCountyWx & @Wx_Or_Not for the latest in weather information.  Have a great weekend.  Stay safe!