Rain Chances this Weekend

This Afternoon – Sunny & Cold – High 39˚ / Tonight – Clear & Cold – Low 16˚

3pm 39˚ ~ 6pm 29˚ ~ 9pm 24˚ ~ 12am 20˚ ~ 3am 18˚ ~ 6am 16˚

Another cold night…

Good afternoon!  The sun is shining but temperatures are once again not on the warm side today. Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s across southern Kentucky, with dew points in the single digits and teens. Low dew point temperatures mean we’re being influenced by a very dry air mass.

An area of high pressure  to our northwest is the cause of our dry air and calm weather. This area of high pressure will slide southeast overnight, keeping skies clear and low temperatures around 15 degrees. The good news is that the low on Friday night will be nearly 20 degrees warmer than tonight.

Fri – Partly Sunny – High 45˚ / Fri Night – Scat’d Rain Showers– Low 35˚

Tomorrow will be slightly warmer, as southerly winds help temperatures reach the mid 40s through the afternoon. Skies will be partly cloudy most of the day, and clouds should start to build into the area sometime during the evening, ahead of a weak shortwave disturbance.

Precipitation will move in from the southwest later in the night. Low temps tomorrow night will be in the mid 30s so any precipitation that falls will be mostly rain with some snowflakes mixing in at a few locations. Rain showers will be scattered in nature, and should impact southern Kentucky starting around 9PM, lasting until around daybreak.

This disturbance doesn’t pack much of a punch as far as precipitation goes.  Rainfall will be light and precipitation totals look to be less than o.1″. Here is the latest run of the NAM model depicting precipitation amounts Friday night. Notice most of southern Kentucky getting very little rainfall.

Sat – Iso’d Rain Showers – High 52˚ / Sat Night – Scat’d Rain Showers – Low 43˚

On Saturday skies will be mostly cloudy as the area is caught between two systems. A few showers will be possible Saturday morning as the shortwave disturbance scoots to our east. Meanwhile, a deepening upper level trough over the southern plains will aid in the development of a pretty strong surface low to our southwest, which will have some impacts on us looking towards the work week.

Ahead of the low, temperatures will be pretty mild by Saturday afternoon with highs in the lower 50s. Scattered rain showers are possible beginning Saturday evening as the low moves east. These rain showers will be very light in nature and with cloud cover, lows will only dip into the middle 40s Saturday night.

On Sunday and Sunday night, this low will move just south of us with a large area of precipitation impacting all of Kentucky Sunday night through Monday. A sharp gradient of temperatures will be present with wintry precipitation possible in northern Kentucky. Right now, it looks like southern Kentucky will see mostly rain with rainfall amounts of 1″+ possible.

Models are in pretty good agreement of keeping temperatures too warm for ice or snow through most of the event, with cold air sweeping in at the end. This means we could see a brief period of wintry mix before precipitation ends with little to no accumulations. This is a very dynamic storm, and a shift in the track of the low could mean changes to the forecast, so be sure to stay updated over the next few days.

That’s all for this afternoon. Remember to check out @WarrenCountyWX and @Wx_Or_Not on Twitter for more frequent updates. Enjoy the rest of your day!