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*Severe Weather Event Expected This Evening*
It’s been very wet through the early morning hours of our Saturday, and we look to catch a break in the widespread precipitation until we get into the afternoon. Attention will then turn to the potential for severe weather, as a potent squall line is forecast to develop later this evening.
A surface low is forecast to track from eastern Texas northeast through the Ohio Valley today. As this occurs, a warm front will lift north of the area, helping create non-convective, southerly winds of up to 25-40+mph.
This will advect a very warm, moisture-rich airmass into the region, priming our atmosphere for potential inclement weather. A cold front will follow, pushing a broken line of strong/severe thunderstorms out ahead of it. The GFS loop below helps you visualize the track of the parent low. The images are valid from 6am this morning through 12pm Sunday in 6-hour increments:
There are several variables in play that will create an array of hazards with this weather system. A strong, multi-linear squall line looks to develop and impact our area between 7pm – 2am tonight. Traveling after dark is not encouraged. Damaging winds look to be the main threat, along with torrential rainfall of 2-4+”.
Another threat we cannot ignore is the possibility of isolated tornadoes. With sufficient shear and helicity in place to make up for a lack of instability, we could very well experience a few tornado spin ups.
The latest SPC Convective outlook outlines today’s severe weather risk across the Continental US. As you can see, all of south central Ketnucky has been included in a “Moderate Risk” for severe weather:
Below is the severe wind probability outlook. All of south central Kentucky is included in a hashed, 45% probability of seeing severe winds within 25 miles of any location:
Last, but certainly not least, the tornado probability map for today. We are included in a hashed, 10% probability of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of any location:
That’s all I’ve got for the, folks. More frequent updates will be available throughout the day @Wx_Or_Not. Do not be scared…be prepared.
@NashSevereWx nailed it with this perspective:
Don’t be scared, be prepared. Severe wx preparation is like putting on a seat belt – just in case, probably won’t need it, but may save you.
If you have questions or comments, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. Everyone keep an eye on the skies this evening, and make sure you have a plan if severe weather strikes. Have a great day.