Tuesday Afternoon Update

Tuesday Evening & Night: We should remain partly sunny and calm through this afternoon and evening, as temperatures top out around 80 degrees.  Tonight, a shortwave disturbance will enter the Mississippi River Valley, as the axis of an upper ridge fluctuates across the region.  These features will combine with a warm, humid airmass to fire off few isolated showers and storms through the overnight.

Wednesday & Thursday: The upper level disturbance and associated warm, muggy air will keep chances at scattered showers and storms in the forecast.  Severe weather is not expected, however, depending on how much sun we see, could result in strong convection developing.  Other than that, expect partly sunny skies with temperature values in the mid 80s.  Heat indices will top close to 90 degrees.

Friday: The end of the work week looks to be the most active period for us here in south central Kentucky.  An upper level trough will begin to work in as an upper ridge is bullied off the east coast.  This feature will send a surface low well north of the Great Lakes, causing its associated cold front to surge across our proximity.  The best time frame to see precip will be Friday evening and overnight.  This is illustrated by the thickness model below, which is valid for 7pm Friday.  Notice the well defined linear organization of moisture:

Expect scattered showers and storms to become more widespread on Friday night as the cold front reaches our vicinity, with the potential for a few to meet severe criteria.  I’ll continue to monitor the latest data and tweak the forecast as needed.

That’s all I’ve for for now, gang.  I’ll be back tomorrow morning with a fresh look at the latest data.  If you have questions or comments, please don’t hesitate to get in touch with me.  The easiest way to do this is via Facebook or Twitter.  Have a great rest of your day, and thanks for relying on ~ Beech Tree Weather!