Afternoon Pop-Up Storms Possible

Howdy folks, and happy Tuesday! I hope your week has been off to a great start. We have switched from a soggy pattern to a more normal summer-like pattern. With warm and muggy conditions, afternoon pop-up storms are possible through the rest of this week.

Tuesday Heat Index near 100ºF

The forecast has sounded like a broken record, and not much change is expected for today. Maximum temperatures this afternoon will reach between 89º-93ºF. According to our friends at the National Weather Service in Louisville, the average maximum temperature for Bowling Green at this time of year 89ºF.

No joke, it's hot! (Giphy) — No joke, it’s hot! (Giphy)

Two main weather impacts are possible today. First, the heat index will reach near 100ºF. With values this high, it is important to pay attention to heat exhaustion and heat stroke symptoms.

The second weather impact for today is isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. With daytime heating, it is enough to destabilize the atmosphere enough to produce pop-up storms. Notice the graphic below. It is clear and quiet, but then suddenly in the afternoon hours, storms pop up every where.

HRRR handling pop-up storms well for today. (Pivotal Weather)

These storms will be hit or miss, and slow moving. Potential impacts from these storms include heavy downpours, damaging winds, and frequent lightning.

Storms should lose intensity by the nighttime hours. Overnight, temperatures will dip down to around 70ºF. The low temperature typically occurs just before sunrise.

More of the Same for Wednesday

Well folks, this should come as no surprise, but the forecast for tomorrow will be very similar. Expect afternoon temperatures to top out around 90ºF. With calm winds, any outdoor activities will be uncomfortable.

Taking a look at the GFS, it also predicts afternoon showers and storms across the entire state.

GFS prediction of afternoon storms for Wednesday (Pivotal Weather)

Models tend to struggle with afternoon pop-up thunderstorms. Exact location of storms is difficult to predict, but know that the conditions are typical for afternoon storm development. Similar to what we’ve seen over the past week, these storms will be slow movers, with heavy downpours.

By the nighttime hours, temperatures will once again drop to around 70ºF, with calm winds.

I already won the lottery, I was born in the US of A, baby! (Giphy)

4th of July Outlook

Independence Day may be a change in the normal day routine and a day of celebration, but the weather pattern won’t have much change.

This normal summertime pattern will still be around, so expect sunshine and some clouds during the day, leading to pop up storms during the afternoon to evening.

GFS shows storms during the early evening of the 4th. (Pivotal Weather)

The GFS once again shows pop-up scattered storms during the afternoon/early evening. Some of these storms may persist into the nighttime hours, but hopefully that won’t ruin your firework festivities. Most storms should be slow moving, but relatively short-lived.

That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a great Tuesday and rest of the week! Make sure to look for the Afternoon Video Update on Facebook and the Afternoon Weather Story on Twitter, only at @wxornotBG.