Rain to Snow Chances Today; Colder Tomorrow

Rain chances increase thru the day, SNOW transition expected this evening.

Posted by Landon Hampton on Thursday, February 1, 2018

Gloomy, Rainy Day Ahead

Well, let me give the knowns of this challenging forecast first. We are currently sitting in the upper 40s this morning, with a cold front sitting just to our northwest. Clouds have overspread the region.

The cold front is outline in blue, and is slowly moving towards us. The winds should shift between 9 am and noon. h/t COD Weather

As divergence (air flowing in opposite directions) increases across our region this morning, clouds will continue forming and precipitation will blossom. It should be really developing across our region between 10 am and noon.

The HRRR model develops the rain and moves it into the region around noon today. h/t pivotalweather.com

The heaviest rain should fall this afternoon, between 1 pm and about 5 pm. After this is when things get dicey!

So, Will we see Snow?

That question is really complicated. The basic set up is that temperatures will be crashing behind a stout secondary cold front this evening. Most of the models hold precipitation across the region as temperatures crash, leading to some snowfall.

The 3km NAM is the solution that makes the most sense to me, mainly because it is a blended idea. It isn't too aggressive with snow, but has brief snow with light accumulations. h/t pivotalweather.com — The 3km NAM is the solution that makes the most sense to me, mainly because it is a blended idea. It isn’t too aggressive with snow, but has brief snow with light accumulations. h/t pivotalweather.com

All of the models (sans the highest res model) have quickly trended higher with snowfall totals across the region. At this point, after seeing several days of nothingness from the models, I am just left bewildered.

My reaction to this development. h/t giphy.com

I am hesitant to expect anything significant, because the consensus is that the freezing line won’t be here until 8 or 9 pm, and I don’t expect precipitation to stay too long around here.

Ms Watching the Models Like.... h/t giphy.com — Me watching the Models Like…. h/t giphy.com

Plus, road temperatures will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s. For now, I don’t anticipate significant accumulating snow. I think 1″ of snow would be our max, but even that would have surprised me yesterday.

I agree with the NWS Louisville on this one. This is almost exactly what I was thinking after looking over the models. Higher amounts are possible, but I don’t buy them yet. h/t NWS Louisville

Prime time for snow will be between 5 pm and 9 pm, so travel impacts are possible. Be sure that you take your time on the evening commute, especially in heavier snow showers. We will update throughout the day!

Much Colder Friday

After that secondary front marches on through the region, temperatures will drop quite a bit. We’re looking to wake up with temps around 20°F Friday morning.

Sunny skies will clear out as a high pressure system moves into the region. However, despite the beautiful day, expect highs to be around 32°F.

Yeah, it’ll be one of those days where you look outside and think, “Wow, I bet it is nice outside!” but it is really just cold.

Saturday is, well, complicated

I thought that I would be confident in this weekend’s forecast by now, but I am not at all. The models are, to no one’s surprise, quite inconsistent and at this point, I can’t pin point anything that is set in stone.

What I do know: clouds will increase on Saturday, and temperatures should get up into the 40s. But that is dependent on a lot of stuff too.

Stay tuned, because this forecast is still struggling.

That is all I have, folks! Be sure to check out our live twitter feed @wxornotBG and Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green weather information. Have a great day!