Rain Today, Drier and Warmer Towards Friday

wxornotBG 4/11/17: Shower and storm chances take us through today, before a dry spell arrives Wednesday into Thursday.

Posted by Landon Hampton on martes, 11 de abril de 2017

Discussion

This forecast discussion is actually pretty simple, as the overall pattern driving our weather is much simpler than it has been recently. That is worth celebrating.

I also hope that you were able to get through Red Flag Warning day fine yesterday. I know that sounds a lot more concerning than it is. For future reference, a Red Flag Warning is issued to inform the public that there is an elevated danger for wildfires. There is your daily fact!

And how nice was yesterday? The atmosphere was very dry, and temperatures were fairly warm. This led to it feeling fantastic outside. It felt as good as I can remember it feeling in quite sometime, simply because it was a dry warmth. It just felt good outside.

Looking at our current weather, we have a couple of areas of precipitation nearing the region this morning. One is a much larger complex of storms in eastern Texas/southern Arkansas, and another is just to our west, with an isolated storm rolling into our region.

The current radar this morning. h/t COD Weather

This is in association with a trough of low pressure that is centered across the Upper Midwest, and is moving northeastward. We are within a favorable portion of its jet streak, and thus, we are seeing precipitation today.

The mid-level flow in the atmosphere as of last evening. The dotted line denotes the trough location. h/t SPC

This is also associated with a weak surface low pressure system centered across lower Michigan, with its cold front extending southwestward into the Arklatex region. This front is slowly marching towards us, and will spark off showers and storms throughout the day, as the HRRR shows.

The HRRR model is showing rain through this evening. I guess that means my intramural softball game will get cancelled…again. h/t pivotalweather.com

This won’t be anything too heavy or crazy, but it will make for a pretty nasty day outside. Expect temps only to warm into the upper 60s this afternoon under cloudy skies with rain. Also: don’t expect any severe weather out of this sucker. The atmosphere won’t have enough moisture or energy to support severe weather.

As this system moves off to our east, clouds will begin to clear as another ridge approaches our region. This should allow for clouds to be clear by midday Wednesday, with temps rebounding quite nicely both tomorrow and Thursday.

Under the influence of that ridge, anticipate partly to mostly sunny skies, with temps getting up into the mid 70s tomorrow, and approaching 80 on Thursday.

Forecast Summary

Today: Mostly cloudy, with rain chances throughout the day. Highs only around 69°F. Overnight, look for rain to move east, and clouds to gradually clear. Lows around 51°F.

Bus stop: ☁️/🌧 63°F
Lunch hour:☁️/🌧 65°F
School is out☁️/🌧 69°F
Evening time:☁️/🌧 64°F

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, with highs around 73°F. Overnight, look for mostly clear skies, with lows around 49°F.

Bus stop: ⛅️ 51°F
Lunch hour: 🌤 67°F
School is out 🌤 73°F
Evening time: 🌤 69°F

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with highs around 79°F. Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies, with lows around 55°F.

Bus stop: 🌤 49°F
Lunch hour: 🌤 70°F
School is out 🌤 79°F
Evening time: 🌤 75°F

Well, that’s all I got this morning! Make sure to follow @wxornotBG on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest weather information. Have a good Monday!