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Real-Time Bowling Green Weather Radar
Yesterday’s Weather
Yesterday was crazy. Straight up. First of all, it was really windy all day long. We were consistently seeing gusts in the 30 mph range, with occasional gusts into the 40s throughout the day. Then last night? Oh my. We had a squall line move through that was strong. It moved through and knocked out power to over 6500 people last night as a 70 mph wind gust was recorded across the southern portion of the county.
Peak wind (mph) from the event via @kymesonet:
Allen Co: 33
Barren Co: 38
Butler Co: 31
Logan Co: .36
Simpson Co: 45
Warren Co: 70 – WOW pic.twitter.com/iNaAskNyTm— Wx Or Not BG (@WxOrNotBG) November 29, 2016
Forecast Summary
Today: Partly cloudy and warm, with breezy conditions. Highs around 70°F. Overnight, look for storms to move in by late evening. Some could be strong to severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. Lows around 55°F.
- Bus stop: ☀️ 51°F
- Lunch hour: 🌤 65°F
- School is out: 🌤 70°F
- Evening time: 🌤/⛈ 67°F
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy early, becoming partly cloudy through the day. Highs around 57°F. Overnight, look for mostly clear skies, with lows around 36°F.
- Bus stop: 🌥 55°F
- Lunch hour: 🌤 56°F
- School is out: 🌤 57°F
- Evening time: ☀️ 52°F
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 52°F. Overnight, look for mostly clear skies, with lows around 30°F.
- Bus stop: ☀️ 37°F
- Lunch hour: ☀️ 45°F
- School is out: ☀️ 52°F
- Evening time: ☀️ 47°F
Discussion
Well, here’s to another interesting forecast!
Is this my second one in a row since, what, July? It really has been a while since the weather has been active on even this level. This is only briefly active; this is not continuously active like we saw back in July.
The basic synoptic set up is is there will be another shortwave trough propagating through the southern extend of the deep trough centered across the northern plains. The timing of this is expected to be somewhat favorable for a severe weather episode across the Tennessee River valley and the southern Ohio Valley.
As this propagates towards the region, it will orient both the mid and upper level jets favorably across the region to support large scale, synoptic forcing/vertical motion across the region. With widespread warm air advection and vorticity advection across the region this evening, forcing shouldn’t be an issue.
In addition to this, we are looking at another day of fairly anomalous wind dynamics being placed across the region. The jet streaks in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will provide plenty of wind energy in addition to the divergence aloft they provide. Add in a strong low level wind max (winds on the order of 80 mph around 3000 ft above the surface) and you have a threat for severe weather.
As is always the case around here, the key to whether or not we see severe weather and sustained convection hinges largely on surface conditions. I think forcing and upper level dynamics are enough to sustain some convection today, but the dynamics aren’t on the order of what we saw last night. Therefore, the atmosphere is gonna have to destabilize at some point. That may actually come today. Surface flow this afternoon is anticipated to be in the 10 to 15 mph range out of the south, which should allow for our temps to rise (barring no extended period of thick clouds) in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
As the shortwave trough approaches this evening, a surface low is anticipated to develop to our southeast and move somewhere within this region. This is probably the key feature of the event. It will be determining factor for how far north the instability is able to develop, and thus, how far north the severe threat could extend.
This is a tough forecast for today. I buy into a severe threat this evening, but this is an uncertain forecast. Models are not on the same page regarding this event, and so trends are going to have to be followed today. However, if a line of convection moves through this evening, the main threats will be damaging winds and an isolated tornado. At this time, I think the highest threat of severe weather is along and east of I-65 here in SoKY. Once this clears, we should be in the clear of rain for a couple days!
After today, the pattern calms down for a couple days. Clouds should give way to partly cloudy skies by tomorrow afternoon, and then we shouldn’t see any threats of precip. Temps will be a bit cooler tomorrow, with highs only in the upper 50s. By Thursday, expect sunny skies, but a high only in the lower 50s.
Today’s Key Points
- Severe weather is a threat tonight
- Nice during the afternoon; highs in upper 60s/low 70s
- Low develops; moves towards us
- Northward extent of low should determine severe threat
- Wind shear is in place across the region, as is forcing; rainfall likely no matter what
- Primary threats will be damaging winds/isolated tornado
- This forecast is uncertain, so stay tuned
- Wednesday/Thursday nice and calm
Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow @WxOrNotBG and @WKUweather on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest Bowling Green Weather information. Have a great day folks!