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Real time Bowling Green Weather Radar
Yesterday’s Weather
Ahh, yesterday. The weather was about exactly what I expected it to end up being, but there may have been a few more showers/storms across the region than I expected. Otherwise, it was a fairly good day!
My temperature forecast was not superb, as we hit 90°F. We had .15″ of precip, and as I mentioned last night, we discovered that we are now several inches below normal on precip for the year.
Forecast Summary
Today: Partly cloudy, with scattered storms this afternoon and evening. Highs around 90°F. Overnight, scattered storms will remain possible, with lows around 76°F.
- Wake up: 🌤 74°F
- Lunch hour: ⛅️ 88°F
- Evening time: ⛅️/⛈ 84°F
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, with isolated storms. Highs around 94°F. Overnight, look for partly cloudy skies with lows around 76°F.
- Wake up: 🌤 76°F
- Lunch hour: 🌤/⛈ 90°F
- Evening time: 🌤/🌩 86°F
Friday: Partly cloudy, with scattered storms in the afternoon and evening. Some may be strong to severe. Highs around 92°F. Overnight, look for storms early, and then clearing. Lows around 74°F.
- Wake up:🌤 77°F
- Lunch hour: 🌤/⛈ 90°F
- Evening time: 🌤/⛈ 85°F
Discussion
Pretty wild few days we have on the way!
These will likely all feature either a shot at rain or actual rainfall, which is good because we need it. Lets dive in!
Today, a shortwave in the mid levels of the atmosphere will be moving east-southeast towards out region, and will likely be a forcing mechanism for showers and storms. Additionally, we have two complexes of thunderstorms moving towards us. One in Illinois moving southeastward and weakening, and the other across eastern Kansas associated with a vorticity maximum.
These two will likely combine to spark off showers and thunderstorms across our region and the state. Additionally, and something to watch for, the convection in Illinois may keep our temps down a bit as it moves towards us and its decaying clouds move over us. There isn’t much of an indication of that as shown by satellite trends, but that is something I am watching for.
As we move into this afternoon, the combination of warm temps and higher dewpoints across the region will yield a fairly unstable atmosphere across the region. Highs should end up in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
This will lead to plenty of instability for the two systems that I mentioned before to work with. Their outflow (and the vorticity max in eastern KS) will likely be able to spark off widespread thunderstorms this afternoon, and some of them may be strong to severe.
The main threats with those will be isolated damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall and lightning. There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, and forecasted storm motions are weak over the region. Be mindful of areas prone to flash flooding, as I can foresee that being an issue this evening if storms are as widespread as I expect. Overnight tonight, watch for isolated storms to remain, with lows falling into the mid 70s.
Tomorrow doesn’t look as stormy, but it does look hot and humid outside.
A deep and amplified shortwave will be moving across the northern Plains, and will be subsequently forcing a surface low across that region and the northern Plains states. This will begin to create a relatively tight pressure gradient across our region tomorrow, leading to fairly strong southwesterly flow throughout the day.
That is why I have temp rising into the mid 90s for highs tomorrow. If we have any storms late tonight and into the early morning hours tomorrow, the outflow boundaries may act as a forcing mechanism for storms in the afternoon. I don’t think storms will be widespread, but there is an isolated chance.
Overnight, look for lows to end up in the mid 70s under partly cloudy skies.
On Friday, that trough begins to advance eastward, and places us favorably within the warm sector of the surface low and along the cold front.
It will be interesting to watch how Friday evolves, as surface moisture will be high, in conjunction with higher temps across the region. This looks to yield an unstable environment by Friday evening.
While there may be plentiful amounts of instability, wind shear has looked gradually worse since yesterday morning, so the severe threat may not be too organized unless a cluster of storms develops quickly and matures. The SPC does have us in a slight risk for severe storms on Friday.
Expect the main threats to be heavy rainfall, damaging winds and lightning. Overnight, look for skies to stay mostly clear to partly cloudy, with lows in the mid 70s.
Extended Outlook
The extended outlook does look a bit cluttered up, with some models hinting at a progressive pattern still.
But some others disagree with this, so we will have to see. Because of recent patterns, I buy a more progressive pattern, as a ridge hasn’t been able to really become established across the eastern US yet this summer.
Thats all I have for ya! Thanks for checking into WxOrNotBG this morning, and be sure to follow@WxOrNotBG on Twitter and like Landon Hampton on Facebook for the latest weather information. Have a great day folks!