Winter Storm Update - @wxornotBG

Real Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:

***Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM Monday***

Reminder that a Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the area until 9 AM Monday morning. A mix of snow, sleet, and rain will continue across the region for the next several hours. 3-6″ has already accumulated across the southern Kentucky area with more wintry precipitation on the way.

2:30 PM Update:

Surface temperatures are holding steady at around 25° this afternoon. Temperatures will slowly climb this evening as more precipitation begins to move into the region. However, temperatures aloft will be the concern moving forward.

2:30 PM Surface Temperatures via the Kentucky Mesonet

Temperatures aloft are slightly below freezing. However, strong warm air advection will make the snow transition to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

850mb Temperature Advection - Valid 3 PM - SPC Mesoanalysis — 850mb Temperature Advection – Valid 3 PM – SPC Mesoanalysis

It should be noted that reports of mixed precipitation are already rolling in. This will cut into snow totals, but will make travel worse. The amount of snow you have on the ground between now and the time the transition to sleet/freezing rain/rain begins will be your greatest measurement. Most cars can handle snow, however, not many cars can handle snow and ice. Travel conditions will continue to deteriorate during the evening hours.

The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model temperatures won’t get above freezing until around 9-10 PM this evening. Take this with a grain of salt, as the HRRR is not handling current temperatures very well at all. In general, at 2 PM the HRRR was some 4-6 degrees too warm! This kind of initialization error complicates the forecast immensely.

I am confident that the HRRR is correct with respect to the amount of wintry precipitation left. The latest run continues to indicate an additional 0.4 – 0.6″ of liquid precipitation. It should be noted though that some of this will fall as snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

HRRR Accumulated Liquid Precipitation - Valid until 8 PM - Pivotal Weather — HRRR Accumulated Liquid Precipitation – Valid until 8 PM – Pivotal Weather

Bottom line: Several more hours of wintry precipitation is expected across the region. Temperatures should rise above freezing at some point during the overnight hours. With that being said, travel is still expected to be complicated during the Monday morning commute. Be on the lookout for updates on twitter @WxOrNotBG. Have a safe evening!