Winter Storm WARNING Issued

Real-time Bowling Green weather radar:


Valentine’s Day, 2/14- Snow – High 34˚ / Tonight – Snow & Rain – Low 32˚

*WINTER STORM WARNING for all of south central Kentucky from 9AM Sunday through 9AM Monday*

Good morning, Bowling Green! And Happy Valentine’s Day to all you lovebirds out there. Today will definitely be the perfect conditions to cozy up with your special someone as winter weather is back in the forecast!

giphy
via giphy.com

Bowling Green, along with the rest of south central Kentucky, will be under a Winter Storm WARNING, valid from 9AM CST Sunday through 9AM CST Monday. A Winter Storm Warning is defined by the NWS as follows:

Issued for a winter weather event in which there is more than one hazard present. For example, a case where heavy snow and strong winds are present. A Winter Storm Watch is issued when these conditions may be met 12 to 48 hours in the future.

via NWS Louisville
via NWS Louisville

As high pressure moves off to our east, a shortwave trough will begin to ride into the region. This upper-level feature, along with a low pressure system to our southwest, will provide our area with the ingredients needed for some accumulating snowfall this Valentine’s Day.

via PivotalWeather.com
via PivotalWeather.com

The shortwave will provide us with LIFT; the warm sector of the low pressure center will provide MOISTURE; and the retreating high pressure center/accompanying Arctic air will provide us with COLD TEMPERATURES at the surface.

Here’s a look at the latest HRRR simulated radar model. It helps illustrate how this system may play out. Light snow moves through this morning, followed by a swath of heavy snow starting by midday, lasting into this evening:

via weatherbell.com
via weatherbell.com

We should see light snowfall this morning, but the snow will really pick up into the afternoon and evening hours. 3-6+” of snow has been the consensus after our morning analysis. I wouldn’t be surprised to see localized areas with upwards of 7+” of accumulation before it’s all said and done.

The National Weather Service’s thoughts can be found below. Our thinking is similar to what they are expecting:

Screen Shot 2016-02-14 at 6.29.32 AM

As far as temperatures go, we’ll start out in the 20s this morning with southerly winds allowing temperatures to increase to around the freezing mark later this afternoon. Temperatures will actually continue to increase as we move into the overnight hours, with our high likely hitting right around midnight, and our overnight low right at around the same temperature.

The following model is valid for midnight tonight, displays temperatures creeping just above freezing:

Monday Midnight
NAM Temperature Map, Valid Midnight, via Pivotal Weather

Due to these changes in temperatures, we could see some light freezing rain early tonight during the transition period, potentially transitioning to all rain by early tomorrow morning. The warming temps and changeover in precip could inhibit the snow that’s on the ground as we get into the early morning hours of Monday.

Be sure if you’re out and about today, give yourself extra time and take precautions when driving. It’s going to be a mess.


Monday, 2/15 – Wntry Mix/Rain – High 35˚ / Monday Night – Rain/Light Snow – Low 33˚

The precipitation doesn’t stop there. Monday will bring more moisture to the region, but warm temperatures look to fluctuate just above freezing, so keep your umbrella handy for any type of precip that may fall. Southerly flow at the surface is expected to take temperatures above freezing by mid morning.

We’ll have to watch closely, however, as a thick snowpack could lower these temperatures even more. If the warmer temps come to fruition, it’ll inevitably kill off any snow we receive between this morning and late tonight, greatly improving travel conditions. If colder temps come in, we could be looking at many more issues to deal with.

Monday 6AM
WPC Surface Map, Valid 6AM Monday, via NOAA

Although Monday will feel quite warm compared to the bone-chilling temperatures we felt this weekend, it will definitely be a dreary day.

As the precipitation trails off to our east, rain will transition into snow during the overnight hours. Little to no accumulation is expected with this second round of snow.


Tuesday, 2/16 – Chance of Rain – High 48˚ / Tuesday Night – Rain/Snow Chance – Low 32˚

So this precipitation can’t stop, won’t stop. Tuesday afternoon and evening will bring another clipper into the area, but this system won’t be nearly as widespread or impacting as the two on Sunday or Monday.

Those of us in south central Kentucky look to be at the bottom tip of the clipper, but some snow then rain then snow (dang temperature changes) are likely.

Tues Temps
NAM Surface Temperature Map, Valid 3PM Tuesday, via Pivotal Weather

Southerly winds will keep us warm on Tuesday, with temperatures into the upper 40s for our high. Temperatures will drop once again around freezing for our overnight low.


And as always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG for the latest real-time weather info. Have a great day!