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Update as of 6:03 PM CST: Line of storms moving quicker than models forecasted; warnings popping up along the length of the line, with strong winds and small hail possible. This line will be our focus for the rest of the evening. Follow Wx Or Not BG on Twitter for warnings that can impact your evening plans.
If you’ve been following Wx Or Not BG, you should know that Bowling Green and the surrounding areas are under a TORNADO WATCH until 8PM CST. It is important today – and always – to have a plan of action in place BEFORE severe weather strikes. Landon and the rest of us here at Wx Or Not encourage you to stay weather-aware, especially this afternoon and evening. The graphic below shows the areas included in the Tornado Watch.
Earlier today, the Storm Prediction Center also upgraded Bowling Green and the surrounding areas to a MODERATE RISK of severe weather. The following SPC maps were issued at 1:37 PM CST.
The map below shows the probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of a point. The hatched area indicates a 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. Bowling Green is right within the borders of the hatched area.
One last map from the SPC – the wind probability map. This map outlines the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. The hatched area indicates a 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. 50 knots = 57.5 mph. 65 knots = 75 mph. Bowling Green is once again inside of the hatched area.
While these SPC maps should not be taken directly at face value, they are good indicators of the strength of predicted storms and the damage they may be able to produce.
Several warnings have been issued – and continue to be issued – for areas along far western Kentucky and Tennessee up through Evansville and Salem, Indiana. Models show storms kicking up throughout the afternoon with a final, strong squall line passing through late evening (graphic below).
While the instability values are not too impressive, in a winter-season severe weather environment, not much is needed to kick up some storms. There is lift in place due to divergence in the upper-atmosphere, we have very strong winds throughout the atmosphere, significantly warm temperatures, and a deep low pressure center off to our west. Will continue to monitor to see if storms will develop with instability values at bay, ahead of the aforementioned line.
High wind shear values will be conducive to rotation, with damaging winds and spin-up tornadoes possible. This will most likely be associated with the strong line of storms moving through later this evening, one with supercells embedded within the line. Then again, thunderstorm “ingredients” must be somewhat balanced – too much of any one thing, such as shear, will not produce a significant storm but rather diminish it.
All in all, stay updated to Wx Or Not BG on Twitter, as well as your local meteorologists (both broadcasting and National Weather Service) to remain weather-aware today. We may not be getting the worst of this storm, but significant severe weather is probable. And remember, it is much better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.