’15-’16 Winter Outlook From Various Sources

Capital Weather Gang released this post today with a compilation of several sources’ outlooks for the winter of 2015-2016. AccuWeather and WeatherBell, two popular private weather companies, were compared to give on overview on thoughts regarding the severity of this upcoming winter.

We are currently in an El Niño pattern, which is measured by warming sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific. Right now, SST are approximately 4 degrees above normal along the South American coastline, signifying a strong El Niño spreading across the central Pacific. El Niño conditions will likely stay the same, if not strengthen slightly, for the winter season.

So what does this mean for us? Typically El Niño promotes more zonal flow across our region with the polar  jet staying well to our north, as shown in the image below. Historically, El Niño winters in Kentucky are not as severe with less snow and milder temperatures.

This is similar to the outlook posted by AccuWeather, but differs a little from what the folks at WeatherBell have to say about this winter.

There is still much uncertainty about what this winter will hold and whether it will be similar to last winter. Many factors contribute to winter weather forecasting and it is still too early to consider all the factors. Keep this in mind with all the upcoming winter weather outlooks.

Check back Wx Or Not soon for more updates on the weather world!