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Real Time Bowling Green Weather Radar:
Today – Scat’d Showers & Storms; Windy – High 79° / Tonight – Scat’d Storms – Low 63°
Scattered showers and storms are moving through with a warm front tracking northeast across south central Kentucky. No severe weather is anticipated with this initial round.
After this round of activity moves through, we’re expect a few hours of calm conditions before more scattered convection works through again late this afternoon into tonight.
Southwest flow will be present aloft, as well as at the surface today, which will help advect warm, moist air into the region. Aside from scattered storms, some of which could be strong to marginally severe late this afternoon, a mix of sun and clouds will paint the sky. This will be in response to our atmosphere destabilizing.
Afternoon highs will top out around 80° in some spots across the region. However, wind out of the southwest on the order of 10-20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph will prevent you from getting too hot.
A line of storms will form to the northwest of the region during the afternoon hours. There remains some questions as to whether this line of storms makes it to Bowling Green, or if it stays north of the region.
I will include a chance scattered thunderstorms tonight. A few storms may be strong to severe, with damaging winds and lightning being the most likely threats. Although no adamant threat exists, a breif tornado spinup can’t be ruled out. Lows will drop to 63°.
The SPC has upgraded south central Kentucky to a Slight Risk for severe weather this afternoon:
Friday 4/3 – Scat’d Storms (Potentially Severe) – High 71° / Fri Night – Isolated Showers; Colder – Low 37°
Our string of beautiful days will come to an end on Friday. A cold front will move across the region from the north, creating another shot at severe weather across the area. Let’s dig right into it.
Upper atmosphere analysis depicts a jet streak developing over Bowling Green around Noon. This will enhance lift across the region, which should produce widespread cloudy skies. The low level jet (or river of air that flows around 5,000 feet above the ground) will strengthen throughout the day, pumping warm, juicy air over Tennessee and Arkansas into Kentucky.
This will allow sufficient destabilization of the atmosphere to cause some concern for the formation of some thunderstorms. There will be adequate shear in the mid to low levels of the atmosphere to keep these thunderstorms organized.
At this time, I believe we’ll see a line of thunderstorms develop just to our west, or perhaps right over Bowling Green, between 4 and 7 PM. This line of storms will move to the east of the region as the cold front progresses eastward.
At this time the severe threat seems highly dependent on the amount of instability that can be received before the storms form. If enough instability is received, strong storms may form and produce vivid lightning, strong wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Keep an eye on the skies. If we get any sunshine in here, our chances for severe weather will rise.
The Storm Prediction Center has included Bowling Green and surrounding areas in an Enhanced Risk for severe storms Friday afternoon, with a 30∞ probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given location:
As the cold front moves through the region, the temperature will drop like a rock in response to the colder air mass moving into the area. Lows will drop to around 37° and a few isolated showers will remain possible.
Saturday 4/4 – Mostly Clear – High 56° / Sat Night – Partly Cloudy – Low 37°
High pressure will move into the region on Saturday. This will help clear out the region of any clouds. Thus, partly cloudy skies are expected with a high around 56° likely.
Saturday night will bring increasing clouds and a low around 37°.
That should wrap up this forecast. Be sure to check back for later updates regarding the potential severe weather this afternoon through Friday. Follow @WxOrNotBG, @wkuCHAOS, and @WarrenCountyWX for the latest WKU and south central Kentucky weather details. Stay safe, and have a great day!