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Real-time Bowling Green weather radar:
*Winter Storm WARNING from 10 am Wednesday until 12 pm Thursday for all of south central Kentucky*
This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a winter storm is forecast to produce heavy snow or significant ice accumulations. The criteria for this warning to be issued is confidence in the forecast for potential snow/ice accumulations of 4+”.
Today, 3/4 – Rain Transitioning To Sleet, Snow – High 42˚ / Tonight – Sleet & Snow – Low 20˚
6am 47˚ – 9am 43˚ – 12pm 39˚ – 3pm 34˚ – 6pm 31˚ – 9pm 27˚
A cold front that moved through the area overnight will begin to stall out to our southeast as we get into our Wednesday, allowing significant precipitation to continue throughout the day and into tomorrow morning. Heavy rain this morning will pond on roadways and make travel hazardous. Be careful on the morning commute.
Due to drastically colder air moving in behind the front, precipitation type will change as the day and night progress, ultimately creating travel and power concerns for much of the state Wednesday afternoon thru Thursday morning.
Today, temperatures will drop as the day goes on, with the freezing line expected to cross our area around sunset. Precipitation will be changing from rain to sleet between mid afternoon and early evening (3pm – 7pm), with a full transition to snow expected later tonight.
The 4km NAM simulated radar model below loops every three hours from 6pm this evening through 6am Thursday morning. This should help illustrate the transition period:
Once the changeover of precipitation does occur, please be cautious when out on the road. Again…deteriorating travel conditions and power outage concerns will come into play not only from the wintry mix of precipitation, but also with strong winds and possible ice accretion…
…this doesn’t look like a fun event.
The heaviest precipitation is expected to occur this evening into early tomorrow morning (8PM – 2AM) with snowfall tapering off by noon Thursday. After discussing, our team has agreed on accumulation totals, with 4-8+” of total snow and ice possible across south central Kentucky. The heavy banding will setup to our north, so those located to our north/northwest in Butler & Edmonson County could see amounts tallying 10-12+”.
This is in good agreement with the accumulation forecast from NWS Louisville. We trust those guys:
As you can see, those located along and north of the forecast area (Hartford, Owensboro Leitchfield, E-town, Louisville, Lexington, etc.) could see even more, with those of you closer to the Tennessee border seeing less. The SREF model, shown below, has very high confidence in nearly all of Kentucky receiving at least 4 inches of snow.
With this being said, these numbers are in no way set in stone. This system is a very challenging one to forecast, due to warm air further up in the atmosphere, which could affect the type of precipitation we see at this surface; simply put, cold air at the surface does not necessarily mean snow will fall right away. The following graphic illustrates why:
We have the potential to see substantial snow and sleet amounts before the system makes its full transition over to snow; this would, in effect, cause accumulations to be lower than they would be otherwise. Sleet accumulates MUCH slower than snow…about 3x slower, to be exact.
Yeah, there’s your fun fact of the day…
Upper-level support and availability of moisture are the two other “ingredients” that could make this system “juicy”, both of which are coming into play over our area. The timing of the system and subsequently the temperature profile of the atmosphere will determine what will fall on the ground and what impacts will be made.
Any change in the system could drastically change what we see here in Bowling Green and surrounding areas. Please continue to stay updated with Wx Or Not BG as we track this storm, because it truly is a difficult one to forecast. Nonetheless, the area will be under a Winter Storm Warning starting at 10am, and appropriate precautions should be taken.
Thursday 3/5 – Snow Ending; Clouds Clearing Late – High 24˚ / Thursday Night – Clear & COLD – Low 3˚
As was stated above, the majority of the snow fall will come to an end around noon on Thursday. High pressure will begin to move into our area from the northwest, causing skies to clear during the late afternoon/evening hours. Temperatures will feel quite chilly in comparison to the 60s we received yesterday (what a tease), with highs remaining in the 20s.
With snowpack, clear skies, and northwesterly winds in place, record low temperatures for the month of March could be tested Thursday night; temperatures are expected to crash into the lower single digits – possibly close to 0°! – by 6 AM Friday.
Friday 3/6 – Sunny – High 31˚ / Friday Night – Mostly Clear – Low 13˚
Friday will bring us a nice change of weather conditions with sunny skies looking to dominate for the end of the workweek. Temperatures will begin to trend a bit warmer every day as the weekend progresses. Highs will remain in the low 30s, with a return to 40s expected for the weekend.
As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWx for the latest real-time weather info. We’ll be updating the blog frequently as the day progresses, so be sure to check back in. Have a great day, and be smart & safe!