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Real-time BG radar:
Today: Cold and sunny, high of 28ºF. Tonight: Increasing clouds, low of 22ºF.
How long has it been cold? It feels like forever since I have felt the warmth. We are likely starting this day off in the upper single digits and lower teens as another arctic high pressure system moved into the northern US out of Canada behind the front that gave us the quick spike in temps last night.
This high pressure system will keep the skies sunny for most of the day, with highs topping out in the upper 20s across the region. Even though the skies will be sunny for the majority of Saturday, Saturday night is when the real fun will begin. As the high pressure system moves off to the east, we will switch from north and westerly flow, to south and southwesterly flow into the night. This will begin advecting ample moisture into the region, and we will see clouds thicken up from the south and west as the night goes on.
Lows will likely bottom out in the low to mid 20s, but will likely before their normal time as southwesterly flow overtakes the region. This will raise temps throughout the day, and will advect clouds and precip into the area on Sunday.
Sunday: Cloudy and increasing showers late, with a high of 38ºF. Sun. night: Rain showers, slight chance of a wintry mix north. Low of 35ºF.
Sunday and into Monday looks to be the weirdest time frame of this forecast, at least. First of all , Sunday will be really cloudy, with showers increasing throughout the day, especially into the evening. Highs will be kept down because of the clouds, but generally speaking we are looking at one heck of a winter heat wave, with temps rising into the upper 30s.
h/t giphy.com
Now, models sometimes have a difficult time gaging how quickly the cold air will scour our; however, just basing this on what happened Thursday evening, the upper 30s seem to be a good bet (don’t bet against good SW flow). This is where the picture gets very foggy, as the models are still pretty confused on what to do. Some models are painting good precip across the area, while others are not.
Additionally, there is the threat of wintery weather across the area too.
Now, I think the wintry threat is a bit stretched across the southern KY as the temps will be just too warm, and the low pressure system will be just unorganized enough to not create its own cold air. However, if the arctic air hangs around tough, we may have to watch our northern areas.
Lows shouldn’t fall too much Sunday night, even though winds will be out of the north and northeast. Lows in the mid 30s seem likely, with widespread showers being the main concern overnight.
Monday: Rain ending through the day, with a high of 39ºF. Mon. Night: Clouds hang tough, and lows around 28ºF.
Monday looks like one of the worst days of this whole timeframe, which is awful because it is a Monday. They are already bad enough!
With the low exiting, we should see clouds hang really tough all day, and into Monday night as the low and associated precip pulls away. Maybe the cold will rush in quick enough on the back edge to change the rain to snow, but I don’t think that is likely. Highs should top out in the upper 30s before the front passes.
More of the same will likely be featured heading into Monday night, as low clouds will be common. With temps falling into the upper 20s, we will have to watch out for freezing drizzle across the region, as the NAM is painting a picture that would highlight that threat:
We will have to see, but with moisture hanging tough, its hard for me to see temps falling below the upper 20s.
Well, that is all I have for this forecast! Have a good weekend, and make sure to check out @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter for your up to date weather information!