Midday Update

The forecast is pretty much on track up to this point.  According to the latest data being collected by the Kentucky Mesonet, southerly winds of 10-20+ mph are whipping across south central Kentucky.  This has resulted in temps catapulting to around the 60˚ mark as of 11am.  Highs this afternoon should top out in the mid 60s.

Our southerly wind shift can be credited to a warm front that now extends north of the Ohio River.  A strengthening low pressure system located to our southwest will track northeast as the day progresses, placing us in strong, southerly flow in the warm sector of the system.

The image below helps illustrate what’s taking place…

We’ll continue to see scattered areas of the wet stuff through early afternoon, with widespread coverage of showers & thunderstorms taking over between mid & late afternoon.  A few storms could become strong, with damaging winds, lightning and heavy rain being the main threat.

Heavy rain is expected with this system, as precipitable water values will be unseasonably high (1.5+”).  The HRRR model supports this idea, displaying a very juicy atmosphere in place over the area at 3pm this afternoon.

We’ll keep chances for showers & storms in the forecast overnight with the passing of a cold front associated with this weather maker.  Again…we could see strong storms impact the area as this takes place.  Severe weather is not anticipated, however, an isolated cell could bolster up & meet criteria for a short amount of time.

Total rainfall amounts through early Sunday could tally between 1-2″.  Those of us experiencing thunderstorms could see more.

Conditions will dry out early Sunday with the passing of the boundary, resulting in temperatures plummeting as the weekend comes to a close.  It’s worth noting that the latest guidance has hinted at the possibility of seeing wrap-around moisture on the backside of this.  If this comes to fruition, we could see a few snow flakes fly…

Don’t panic…”it won’t be nuthin’ to shake a stick at.”

That’s all for now.  As always, stay in touch with @WxOrNotBG & @WarrenCountyWx for the latest real-time weather information.