Monday Severe Weather Talk

Our next weather system is expected to impact the region tomorrow, bringing with it the potential for severe weather.  The leading edge of a mid level jet streak is expected to align over southern Kentucky Monday afternoon/evening, enhancing lift in our atmosphere.  Lift is a very important ingredient needed for inclement weather to take place.

Combine this forcing with sufficient moisture advecting in from the southwest (sending dewpoints into the mid 50s), and we’ll have enough moisture to compliment strong convection, should it come to fruition.

Moderate instability and impressive wind shear values will also be available, rounding off the needed concoction of parameters for potential strong/severe thunderstorms.  An area of moderate CAPE (a parameter used to measure instability) will help prime our atmosphere with plenty of energy, should the storms decide to fire.

The following image displays the Storm Prediction Center’s latest convection outlook.  It has included the entire area in a ‘Slight (think enhanced) Risk ‘ for severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening:

Main threats with this particular setup will be strong winds, hail, frequent lightning & torrential rain.  We’ll also have to keep an eye out for an isolated tornado or two.  Our wind profiles across southern Kentucky are showing signs of veering, meaning they could promote low-level rotation tomorrow afternoon/evening:

The NAM simulated radar model below (take it with a grain of salt, it is a model, afterall) agrees with the notion that our skies will be busy Monday afternoon:

The timing for the brunt of the activity to move through, should it develop, will be between early afternoon and early evening Monday.  As I mentioned earlier in the post, please keep in mind this is potential, not a guarantee.  Our job is to keep you informed of all possibilities.

We’ll be updating frequently on the blog & social media throughout the day as this system evolves.  With any luck, lingering showers will hang around tomorrow morning and inhibit our instability.  This would work in our favor and suppress storm development tomorrow afternoon.

Everyone have a safe start to the week.  Thanks for reading!