at 2:14 PM by Tyler Smith

El Nino Update

The latest update from the Climate Prediction Center still has a 60 – 65% chance of an El Nino occurring during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. Here is the model spread:

Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Discussion. Forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 120°W- 170°W). Figure updated 19 August 2014.
Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Discussion. Forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W). Figure updated 19 August 2014.

 

Here is an image of the sea surface height anomalies. Higher than normal sea surface indicates warmer ocean waters.

 

sea-surface height anomaly from satellite data
Sea surface height anomaly averaged over August 20-30, 2014. Higher-than-average sea-surface height indicates warmer waters below the surface; the current upwelling Kelvin wave is visible along the equator as an especially dark red spot near image center. Image by NOAA Climate.gov from JASON-2 satellite data provided by NOAA View.

 

In case you are wandering what the difference is between a La Nina and an El Nino: A La Nina is the cooling of the ocean waters off the west coast of South America, whereas an El Nino is the warming of the ocean waters of the west coast of South America.

 

Pacific Equitorial sea temperature of El Nino and La Nina
These global maps centered on the Pacific Ocean show patterns of sea surface temperature during El Niño and La Niña episodes. The colors along the equator show areas that are warmer or cooler than the long-term average. Images courtesy of Steve Albers, NOAA.(Source: ClimateWatch Magazine)

 

How does the El Nino impact our winters? Typically an El Nino will give Kentucky dryer than average conditions with equal chances of seeing above or below average temperatures. With this El Nino looking to be weak to moderate at best, it will have less of an influence on our winter.