Validity of Winter Forecasts

Are you an avid sports fan? If so, you’ve probably seen those articles that float around speculating how next season will go. Sometimes they state which team will mostly win a championship. Other times they may give a “pre-season” poll, ranking the teams in order of projected performance. Now, this makes a little sense in the sports world because most of the variables are known. Sports broadcasters know what the roster will look like for a team, they know the rosters for other teams, and they may even know the schedule for teams.

But, what works in sports cannot really work in weather. I know I’m comparing apples to oranges here, but that’s not the purpose of the post. In my opinion, forecasters have little business publishing winter weather outlooks in August. Sure, it’s great to forecast for yourself, how else are we supposed to get better? However, creating and publishing a forecast are two completely different things. In publishing a forecast you’re telling the public what you think will happen in the winter months.

No matter how many times you may put a label on the post, such as “THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.” the public is always going to run with it. I couldn’t tell you how many times I’ve seen the Farmer’s Almanac forecast floating around Facebook. The Capital Weather Gang has a similar approach to this subject, despite creating their own winter forecasts:

“Our general view is that winter forecasts – even issued in the fall – should be viewed with some skepticism. That includes our own. Seasonal forecasts have progressed some and can be used as a guide, but still can and do go wrong. The most reliable seasonal forecasts for winter are issued in the late October and November time frame, although even they are not foolproof.”

Bottom line, can winter weather forecasts be trusted so far out in advance? In my opinion, no. With that being said, here’s my winter forecast for Bowling Green: