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Real Time Regional Radar:
This Afternoon – Mostly Sunny, Warm – High 91º / Tonight – Partly Cloudy, Pleasant – Low 68º
3pm 91º – 6pm 86º – 9pm 79º – 12am 74º – 3am 72º – 6am 68º
The summer heat makes an abrupt return after an unseasonable cool down last week and into the weekend. A strengthening upper level ridge will continue to work eastward towards our region providing much warmer and drier conditions for the short term forecast. Temperatures this afternoon have been quite warm with thermometer readings in the upper 80’s to right around the 90 degree mark.
The remainder of this afternoon will feature warm conditions as mostly sunny skies prevail. Tonight, look for partly cloudy skies with mild overnight temperatures in the upper 60’s.
Tue – Mostly Sunny; Iso’d Storms – High 93º / Tue Night – Party Cloudy; Mild – Low 72º
The aforementioned upper level ridge will continue to work eastward from the Southern Rockies while controlling our weather for Tuesday. However, winds will begin to shift from our south as some lower level moisture tracks northward across southern Kentucky. Precipitable water values will range from 1.4 – 1.6’’ for some locations across the KY/TN border with rising dewpoint values in the upper 60’s, lower 70’s.
While some moisture tries to creep northward, the atmosphere will lack any major lifting mechanism for storm development. With that said, I think most of us will stay dry as we’ll keep a slight chance for an isolated storm Tuesday afternoon.
Outside of isolated storm chances, heat indices will be of major concern throughout the afternoon hours. Conditions will become very hot and muggy as heat index values rise into the mid-upper 90’s. Regardless, if you’re battling the heat, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and stay hydrated.
Wed – Partly Sunny; Sct’d Storms – High 92º / Wed Night – Mostly Cloudy; Storms Likely – Low 71º
Storm chances will begin increasing across the region as our next rainmaker arrives Wednesday afternoon and evening. A cold front will gather some steam and work from the northwest as showers and storms develop starting Wednesday afternoon. The latest model guidance suggest decent convective parameters with precipitable water values near 1.9”, dewpoint values in the lower 70’s, and moderate instability. However, meager bulk shear values will make things more difficult for storms to become more organized.
Overall, the threat for severe storms will be low, but some strong storms will certainly be possible as major threats will be heavy rainfall, gusty winds and vivid lightning. The low pressure system and its associated cold front will work through the region by Wednesday night, early Thursday morning as conditions clear from north to south. Highs will reach the lower 80’s as cooler and drier air settles in across the Commonwealth.
That does it for now, folks. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter. Stay cool out there!