Severe Weather Possible in Northern Plains

Some nasty severe weather appears possible across the northern plains this evening. It looks like damaging wind is the main threat across North Dakota and Minnesota. Here’s the Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Outlook for this evening. A moderate risk has been outlined for portions of the above areas.

Let’s dive into the setup…

A surface low pressure system is located just southwest of Bismark, North Dakota. This is pumping warm, moist air into North Dakota and Minnesota. Instability values here are quite high across the region. In the same region, we find very good surface to 500mb wind shear. This will tilt the updrafts of storms, causing them to strengthen and last longer. I’m confident that a widespread damaging wind event will likely unfold over the coming hours.