Friday Afternoon Update

Real-time Radar:

This Afternoon – Cloudy, A Few Showers – High 72° / Tonight – Cloudy, Scattered Showers– Low 64°

3pm 68º – 6pm 69º – 9pm 67º – 12am 66º – 3am 65º – 6am 64º

Good afternoon, thanks to an area of low pressure to our southwest today has shaped up to be a cool and dreary day. Cloud cover has engulfed nearly the entire state with very light rain showers moving across the region. So far, we have only picked up a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall, but these rain showers will increase in intensity and coverage by this evening.

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Visible Satellite Imagery valid at 2:15 PM CST. (Courtesy: NASA)

Cloud cover will really limit our high temperatures to 15-20 degrees below average for this time of year. Temperatures won’t fall much overnight with lows in the middle 60s.

Rain showers will increase tonight as we will be on the northwestern edge of a shield of rain moving northeast across the state. It looks like the heaviest precipitation will be to our south and east but we will still see off and on rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Rainfall amounts should be around a quarter inch. Here is what the latest run of the NAM model thinks the radar will look like from tonight:

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12Z NAM Composite Reflectivity valid from 4pm today through 10am Saturday. (Courtesy: SimuAWIPS)

Saturday 7/19– Cloudy, Sct’d Showers – High 80° / Saturday Night – Cloudy, Iso’d Showers– Low 67°

Tomorrow’s forecast looks similar to today with clouds and showers persisting as the area of low pressure to our south chugs east and we remain under an upper level trough. This area of low pressure will begin to weaken tomorrow and it looks like the heaviest precipitation will move off to the north and east by mid-morning.

For the remainder of day we will have to watch out for scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Two things you’ll need to help dodge the rain tomorrow: umbrellas and windshield wipers.

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Showers will decrease in coverage overnight, but there will be some isolated showers around, especially early. Total rainfall for Saturday and Saturday night should stay under a quarter inch.

Temperatures will be dependent on cloud cover and precipitation on Saturday with highs struggling to reach 80 degrees and lows in the upper 60s.

Sunday 7/20– Mostly Cloudy, Isolated Showers & Thunderstorms – High 85° / Sunday Night – Mostly Cloudy, Showers Ending– Low 68°

We will still be dealing with this pesky low to our south on Sunday as isolated showers will still be around. Precipitation will be light and coverage will be greatest during the afternoon. We may end up seeing a few breaks in cloud cover along the way, and this will help temperatures reach into the middle 80s by Sunday afternoon.

Showers will finally begin coming to an end by Sunday night and total rainfall amounts on Sunday should be around a tenth of an inch. Showers will end as a result of a dominant ridge across the central U.S. pushing to the east. This ridge will be making things very hot across the plains and will help us to possibly reach 90 once again by next week.

Check out the latest run of the GFS model showing us on the eastern edge of a well-developed ridge by 1am Monday:

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12Z GFS 500mb Heights & Wind valid at 1am Monday. (Courtesy: Twisterdata)

That’s all I’ve got for this afternoon. Follow @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on Twitter for real-time weather updates to help you stay dry this weekend.