@wxornotBG Facebook
@wxornotBG Twitter
@wxornotBG Instagram
Real-Time Regional Radar:
This Afternoon – Partly Sunny; Iso’d (Strong-Severe) Storms – High 94º / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy; Strong – Severe Thunderstorms – Low 71º
3pm 93º – 6pm 89º – 9pm 83º – 12am 77º – 3am 74º – 6am 71º
We’ll kick things off with stating the obvious, it’s hot. Temperatures started warm this morning and soared into the lower 90’s for Bowling Green. On top of the heat itself, dewpoint temperatures reached the low-mid 70’s making for a very warm and muggy day. These higher dewpoint values only made the heat more oppressive as heat indices climbed near or just above the century mark.
Conditions across southern Kentucky are very warm and moist as the atmosphere is in an ideal state for thunderstorm development. A cold front continues to work across the Central Plains this afternoon and will arrive on our doorstep later this evening. The lift provided by the front, plenty of moisture and instability will support my current thinking for strong-severe development.
Storms are expected to fire up just to our west later this afternoon before working eastward this evening. As mentioned in the previous post, the timing seems to remain unchanged. My thoughts along with the latest model guidance continue to suggest an arrival time between 6-10pm this evening.
This line of thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, damaging winds, hail and vivid lightning. Also, an isolated, brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out. The latest SPC outlook seems to agree with my current thinking with much of the state under a slight (enhanced) risk for severe storms. This does include the city of Bowling Green.
The SPC has increase our chance for seeing damaging winds (30%) within 25 miles of a given point.
The SPC have also given us a 15% chance of seeing large hail (>1″) within 25 miles of a given point.
The tornado threat looks minimal, but still possible. SPC gives a 2% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of a given point.
Activity will continue into tonight as the severe threat decreases through the overnight hours. The latest precipitation forecast hints towards rainfall totals near 0.50”. Of course, locally heavier amounts will be possible for areas where stronger thunderstorms occur.
Wed – Partly Sunny; Sct’d Storms – High 87º / Wed Night – Partly Cloudy; Cooler – Low 63º
The unsettled pattern will hang around for the first part of our Wednesday as the aforementioned cold front slowly works through the area. In return, we’ll keep the chance in-tact for a few scattered showers and storms for Bowling Green through the morning hours before things calm into Wednesday afternoon. No storms are expected to reach severe potential.
Afternoon temperatures will remain warm as highs reach the upper 80’s. Partly sunny skies will win out through the afternoon and evening hours as the slow moving front finally departs the region. Cooler, drier air will filter in behind the front leaving us a refreshing and comfortable air mass. The overnight hours will be pleasant temperature-wise with lows dipping into the lower 60’s under partly cloudy skies.
Thu – Mostly Sunny; Gorgeous – High 81º / Thu Night – Partly Cloudy; Chilly – Low 59º
Yes. What you just read above is correct. After baking in the sun early this week, the start of an early holiday weekend for many will be perfect. Highs will struggle to reach the lower 80’s as a surface high pressure dives in bringing plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures.
This lovely high pressure will hang around for a bit keeping us sunny and cooler. Temperatures will remain pleasant for our Independence Day as well as the first part of our weekend. The sunshine looks to stick around for an extended period before temperatures begin to heat back up by early next week.
That does it for now, folks. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter. With the threat for severe threat looming, but sure to stay weather aware this evening!