More Storm Chances

Real Time Regional Radars:

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This Afternoon – Partly Cloudy; Sct’d Storms – High 86º / Tonight – Mostly Cloudy; Iso’d Storms– Low 66º

3pm 86º – 6pm 81º – 9pm 75º – 12am 70º – 3am 67º – 6am 66º

It’s nothing but déjà vu in the weather world as another day has brought warm and muggy conditions with the chance for scattered storms this afternoon/evening. That’s right, a nearly identical forecast is in the making when compared to Wednesday except this time, coverage for storms will be a tad better.

Scattered showers and storms will be diurnally driven as temperatures warm in this moist, unstable atmosphere. A weak surface trough will continue its slow track southward across the Commonwealth while supplying additional lift for development. This will provide a focal point for storm activity and help with more widespread activity.

No severe weather will be anticipated this afternoon although storms could be a bit stronger with the surface trough sliding through. With that said, any storm will be capable of producing brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, lightning, and in some cases, small hail. Any activity will wane by this evening as cloudy skies take over with mild overnight lows.

 

Fri – Partly Sunny; Sct’d Storms – High 86º / Fri Night – Partly Cloudy; Stray storm – Low 64º

The surface trough will finally work into the Tennessee Valley region by Friday morning as the chance for isolated storms will exist. Yes, you’re reading that right. The diffused boundary will still provide some lift as day time heating and moist conditions prevail. Model output continues to show dewpoint temperatures near 70 degrees with precipitable water values ranging from 1.6 – 1.8”. In other words, it’ll be a very juicy atmosphere.

Drier air will then filter in across the state into the evening and overnight hours as the boundary finally clear the region. An amplified upper level ridge will situate itself over the region by Friday night as Saturday shapes up to be a nice, but warm day.

 

Sat – Mostly Sunny; Warm – High 87º / Sat Night – Partly Cloudy; Mild – Low 64º

If you’re assuming what I think you’re assuming, the answer is no. The upper-level ridge will bring quiet conditions to Bowling Green as we’ll see mostly sunny skies. See, I told you so. However, we’ll keep a stray shower or two in the forecast, especially for southern Kentucky, but I think Bowling Green will remain dry for the first part of the weekend.

The upper-level ridge will be short-lived as it weakens and slides eastward Saturday night and into Sunday. Return flow will amp up our low-level moisture as instability increases across the area. In return, we’ll see chances for scattered shower and storm development back into the forecast. Stay with me now…It’s going to be ok.

 

 

Better chances for storms come Monday as this summer-like, pop-up storm pattern continues to live another day. Daily chances appear to be the case much like this past week for the upcoming period. Temperatures will remain warm as muggy conditions hang tough.

That’s all I have for now, folks. Be sure to stay up to date with all your real time weather info @WxOrNotBG and @WarrenCountyWX on twitter. Wishing everyone a great evening! It’s almost Friday.