Severe Weather Update

Scattered showers and storms have pestered the region today, as expected.  All storms up to this point have remained sub-severe, however, activity is expected to intensify later tonight.  Follow the activity with the radar loop below:

For the remainder of today, we’ll keep scattered showers & storms in the forecast, as a stationary front resides to our north, and a cold front approaches from the west.  This will pump warm, moist air into south central Kentucky, laying a foundation for potential strong/severe storms tonight.  Have a look at the surface model below for a better idea of how our conditions are shaping up:

The cold front will progress east across the viewing area late tonight.  Ahead of this boundary, a strong squall line of thunderstorms are expected to organize, bringing with it the potential for severe weather.  The following HRRR simulated radar loops every hour from 9pm this evening through 2am Friday morning.  This should give you a better idea of how this system may behave:

Main threats with this weather maker will be damaging winds, torrential rain, frequent lightning & hail.  An isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out.  The latest from the SPC includes our area in a 30% probability of seeing severe winds [58+mph] within 25 miles of you tonight:

A 15% probability of seeing 1+” hail within 25 miles of you:

A 5% probability of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of you:

Scattered showers and storms will stick around through the morning hours of our Friday, with gradual clearing expected through the afternoon, as high pressure takes over.  When it’s all said & done, we could be looking at additional rainfall amounts of 1-2″.  Localized areas may see more.

For the latest real-time weather information, stay connected to @WxOrNotBG & @WarrenCountyWx.  We’ll be updating frequently through this afternoon and tonight, keeping you updated on our potential for severe weather.