Another Nice Day

The Tuesday struggle.

Today 4/1 – Decreasing Clouds, Partly Sunny – High 75˚ / Tonight – Partly Cloudy – Low 53˚

6am 54˚ ~ 9am 60˚ ~ 12pm 70˚ ~ 3pm 75˚ ~ 6pm 70˚ ~ 9pm 63˚

Not much going on in the weather world today, folks.  A few hit & miss sprinkles have infiltrated the region early this morning, but should end very shortly.  Flat ridging looks to keep partly to mostly sunny skies in place, as light southwesterly winds help boost afternoon highs into the mid 70s.

Tonight, cloud cover is expected to increase a bit, as a weak cold front closes in, and eventually stalls to our northwest.  Here’s a look at the current surface conditions to give you a better idea of how things will shape up:

Wed – Increasing Clouds, Iso’d Showers & Storms – High 75˚ / Wed Night – Scat’d Showers & Storms – Low 60˚

Cloud cover will continue to take over the skies throughout our Wednesday, as moisture advection dampens up our atmosphere.  By the afternoon, a few isolated showers and storms will be possible, which will increase in coverage throughout Wednesday night.

The parameters I’ve analyzed with the latest data indicates the potential for storms to become rather strong.  We may even see a few meet severe criteria Wednesday night.

Thu – Showers &  Storms Likely – High 71˚ / Thu Night – Scat’d Showers & Storms – Low 58˚

A very similar pattern will continue throughout our Thursday, as an evolving low pressure system begins to cut a path northeast out of the Central Plains.  This parent low will track toward across the Ohio Valley, causing an associated cold front to close in from our west.

This will increase moisture profiles across south central Kentucky, in turn keeping scattered showers and storms in the forecast.  The GFS Precip model below is valid for 1pm Thu, and signals showers across the region:

The given parameters are not overly impressive, however, they do warrant the potential for strong/severe convection.  My attention at the moment remains on late Thursday night, as the cold front is slated to surge west to east across our proximity.  This looks like the best time we could see storms meet severe criteria.

Here’s the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, which includes south central Kentucky in an elevated risk for seeing severe weather Thursday – Friday.  They have outlined a 15% probability of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of you Thursday night:

Our instability & moisture looks to amp up on Thursday night, which will use the forcing from the approaching cold front to potentially create severe thunderstorms.  Biggest threats look to be damaging winds, lightning, heavy rain & hail.

That’s it for the morning update.  As always, stay in contact with @WarrenCountyWx & @WxOrNotBG for the latest in real-time weather info.  Have a fantastic Tuesday, and enjoy the outdoors while you can.  It looks like it’s going to be a damp end to the week.  Thanks for reading.