Improving Conditions

Hump Dayyyyy

Today 3/26 – Sunny & Mild – High 48˚ / Tonight – Increasing Clouds – Low 35˚

 6am 19˚ ~ 9am 31˚ ~ 12pm 42˚ ~ 3pm 47˚ ~ 6pm 45˚ ~ 9pm 38˚

High pressure will take full control across the region today, leaving us with plentiful amounts of sunshine to soak in.  Winds will remain light and variable, while temp readings are limited to the upper 40s.  Here’s a look at how our surface conditions are shaping up.  High pressure…yeahhhhh:

Overnight, cloud cover will slowly increase across our proximity, as our next weather maker comes to fruition over the Great Plains.

Thu – Partly Cloudy, Scat’d Showers, BREEZY – High 63˚ / Thu Night – Showers Likely – Low 50˚ 

High pressure will track off the east coast, work with low pressure to our northwest and produce southwesterly winds of 15-25mph over south central Kentucky.  Have a look at the GFS model below for a better illustration:

These features combining will be responsible for temps sky-rocketing into the lower 60s, while increasing our cloud cover at the same time.  Warm, moist air will continue to advect into the area as we progress throughout the day, which may fire off a few isolated/scattered rain showers will be possible by the afternoon.

On Thursday night, an area of low pressure will cut northeast through the Ohio Valley, swinging an associated cold our way from our west.  This will provide the needed forcing to create widespread rain showers across south central Kentucky.  The GFS precip model below is valid for 1am Friday, and paints a damp picture for us:

Fri – Scat’d Showers & Storms – High 68˚ / Fri Night – Scat’d Showers & Storms – Low 51˚

The cold front will take its sweet time progressing east of our location, keeping an active pattern around for both Friday & Saturday.  With the given parameters, we could see a few strong thunderstorms with this system as well.  A few may even meet severe criteria, with strong winds, frequent lightning, torrential rainfall and hail being the main threats.

The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has south central Kentucky included in a ‘Slight Risk’ for severe weather Friday morning – Saturday morning.  A 15% probability of seeing severe weather withing 25 miles of any given location:

It must be spring…

The good news is that model trends continue to suggest a very nice, sunny & dry last half of the weekend.  I don’t know about you, but that sounds good to me…and Gandalf.

That’ll wrap up the afternoon update.  Don’t forget to stay in touch with @WarrenCountyWx & @WxOrNotBG for more frequent, real-time weather info.  Enjoy your Hump Day.  Thanks for reading.