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Halloween (Today) – Showers & Storms Likely – High 70 / Tonight – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 52
7am 62 ~ 10am 66 ~ 1pm 69 ~ 4pm 70 ~ 7pm 63
**Severe Weather Possible Today**
Wind Advisory in effect from 3pm Thursday – 12am Friday
As well advertised, unless you’ve been living under a rock, severe weather is a possibility today. A strong cold front is currently approaching south central Kentucky from our west, helping create an environment for strong/severe convection to potentially develop. Showers and storms are expected throughout the day, however, the greatest severe risk won’t arrive until 4-9pm this afternoon and evening. Main threats with this system will be:
1) Torrential Rainfall/Localized Flooding
2) Damaging, Straight-line Winds
3) Isolated Tornado Spin-ups
Here is a look at the most recent convective outlook from the SPC, valid for today. It continues to include all of the viewing area in a “Slight Risk” (standard risk) for severe weather:
The latest data continues to paint an ugly picture across our region this evening. Wind speeds of 70+ knots have been consistent on the 850mb (~5,000ft) model for the past several runs. This indicates the likelihood of damaging winds with this setup. We are expected to see sustained gusts of 20-30+mph as we get into this afternoon and evening. Here is a look at the LLJ (70+kts) on the most recent NAM model, which is valid for 7pm this evening:
Low level shear and ample moisture will prosper across our proximity this evening as well, meaning the potential for isolated tornado spin-ups will exist, along with localized flooding. Helicity values (values pertaining for an updraft to “rotate”) have also continued an impressive trend.
You folks know I’m not the “guy who cries wolf,” when it comes to weather events. With that being said, I would ask that you please pay close attention as this system unfolds today. Similar fall severe weather events from the past have had similar characteristics leading up to them. It definitely doesn’t look like a fun Halloween. Even if we don’t see severe weather, I can promise you this….lots of rain and sustained, strong winds. If you have any loose objects or decor outside, it would be a good idea to bring them inside or put them away.
Friday & Saturday – Sunny & Pleasant