Tuesday Afternoon Update

This Afternoon – Partly Cloudy, Iso’d Showers – High 65 / Tues Night – Scat’d Showers – Low 57

4pm 65 ~ 7pm 61 ~ 10pm 60 ~ 1am 59 ~ 4am 58

Rather pleased with the overall forecast up to this point. It doesn’t look like much of anything needs to be changed. Warm front continues to evolve from a stationary boundary across our region, which will create an environment conducive for isolated showers through the afternoon and evening.

The best chance at seeing the wet stuff won’t arrive until tonight, before tapering off once again through the early part of our Wednesday. No severe weather is expected. Here is a look at the current surface model. The stationary front over south central Kentucky is in the process of transitioning to a warm front, lifting north:

Wed – Partly Cloudy, Iso’d Storms – High 76 / Wed Night – Scat’d Showers & Storms – Low 59

7am 58 ~ 10am 67 ~ 1pm 74 ~ 4pm 76 ~ 7pm 62

Warm front will be located to our north, as its associated low pressure system begins to advance toward the Midwest. Isolated showers and storms will remain in the forecast both Wednesday and Wednesday night as a result, otherwise, partly cloudy skies will be the story. Again, severe weather is not expected.

Thu – Showers & Storms Likely – High 70 / Thu Night – Showers & Storms Likely – Low 50

**Severe Weather Possible**

Halloween still looks to be a mess in reference to the latest forecast analysis. The models continue to agree that a strong weather maker will evolve across our area during the afternoon and evening. A stout cold front looks to advance west to east across our proximity, creating the likelihood for widespread showers and storms.

What I’m seeing from the latest data suggests that a low instability/high shear environment will be in place across our area. A deepening low pressure system will advance toward the Great Lakes from the Midwest. In response to this, swift, southwesterly flow will pump a moisture-rich airmass out ahead of the low pressure system’s associated cold front, which will warrant one of the main threats from this system: Ample rainfall and localized flooding for south central Kentucky.

Another area of concern that will need to be closely monitored is the potential for isolated tornado spin-ups. The current setup suggests we could be dealing with a potent line of low-topped convection, and/or multiple linear segments (Quasi-linear Convective System for all of the weather nerds). The image provided illustrates how tornadoes can form with these particular systems:

While the best environment for a spin-up or two exists to our southwest, it will still need to be closely monitored, as low level shear amps up over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley’s. Regardless of this threat, it looks like a given that we will be pestered by sustained winds of 20-30mph Thursday afternoon and evening. I hate to be the messenger of bad news, but trick – or – treating doesn’t look too good at this point. I’ll continue to monitor this closely and keep you up to date as needed.

That will be all for the time being, folks. I’ll return bright and early tomorrow morning with another look at the forecast. Have a great remainder of your Tuesday!