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Today – Partly Cloudy, Scat’d Storms – High 76 / Tonight – Iso’d Showers & Storms – Low 59
7am 58 ~ 10am 67 ~ 1pm 74 ~ 4pm 76 ~ 7pm 62
Warm front will be located to our north, as an associated low pressure system begins to advance toward the Midwest from the Plains. Scattered showers and storms will remain in the forecast this morning, with partly cloudy skies expected this afternoon. Here is a look at current frontal positions in relation to the Bluegrass State:
Expect a major warmup this afternoon, with highs reaching into the mid – upper 70s, thanks to southerly winds of 10-15mph taking shape over our proximity. As we get into tonight, scattered showers and storms will return to the forecast, as our next weather maker approaches from the west. Severe weather is not expected.
7am 62 ~ 10am 68 ~ 1pm 73 ~ 4pm 76 ~ 7pm 72
**Severe Weather Possible**
A strong cold front is scheduled to approach south central Kentucky throughout Halloween, producing a few rounds of strong, possibly severe, convection out ahead of it. South central Kentucky looks to potentially be impacted during the late morning – afternoon hours, and again around sunset. The model below displays the most recent SPC Convective Outlook, which is valid for Thursday. As you can see, all of the viewing area continues to be included in a “Slight Risk,” with a 30% probability of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of any given location:
Recent models have trended toward phasing other parameters with more instability, which raises some concern as well. With significant low level shear in place, I’ll be closely monitoring radar for tornado spin-ups. When you deal with the mesoscale features we have with this type of setup, it can be tricky, as the models seem to not handle them very well. Please stay up to date on the weather tomorrow, friends. Trick-or-treating still looks like a no-go, and for good reason.