Strong Storms Possible

Happy Saturday, friends!  Thanks for dropping by for your forecast.  Scattered showers and storms have plagued the north/northwest tier of south central Kentucky this morning, and we should see activity increase through this afternoon and evening.

An approaching cold front will serve as a forcing mechanism to lift the warm, moist airmass over us, creating an environment for scattered activity today. As we get into tonight, parameters will become better aligned for strong to severe convective development.  Let’s have a look at the current outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for today:

As illustrated by the image, western portions of the Bluegrass State have been included in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather.  With the current setup the models are giving, it looks as though we’ll have the potential to see strong storms tonight.

Given the state of variables, the brunt of the activity looks to move through around, or shortly after midnight tonight.  Please keep in mind that we could see a few strong storms fire this afternoon, however, the assembly of this system looks to favor the predawn hours of our Sunday as being the most active.  Main threats will be torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and damaging winds.  The NAM simulated radar model below is valid for 2am Sunday morning:

Widespread showers and a few lingering storms will stick around for our Sunday, as the upper trough bringing us this active period slows down across the region.  This could result in ample rainfall, along with a flooding concern across south central Kentucky.  Thanks to the passing of the cold front, much cooler air will take over the region.  High temperatures tomorrow and Monday will be limited to the mid – upper 60s!  Total rainfall amounts through Monday morning could range from 2-3″, as displayed by the latest QPF model below.  Please keep in mind that a few localized areas could see more:

I’ll be back later today to update you on this evolving weather setup.  If you have any questions or comments, please get in touch with me via Facebook or Twitter.  Everyone enjoy the start to the weekend, and keep an eye on the sky.  Thanks for reading!