Active Pattern to Finish the Week

Good morning, friends, and happy Hump Day. I hope you’ve had time to go out and enjoy the sunshine and dry weather, because changes are coming. We are expected to have an active pattern to finish the week.

Skycams show a few wet roads out there this morning as rain moves east. Image at 6:35 AM.

A Few Strong/Severe Storms Possible

We have an upper level disturbance in the atmosphere that is bringing a change of weather to our area. Today we will keep eyes on the possibility of showers and some strong to severe thunderstorms

Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has our area in a Slight Risk (Yellow, Level 2 of 5) for severe weather today.

Graphic from our friends at NWS Louisville.

Weather models are struggling to agree on the timing and placement of thunderstorms. Some predict storms will fire up to our east and we stay dry, others keep storms to our north, and others predict storms to come through south central Kentucky by the late afternoon/evening hours.

Current thinking is that some showers move east and die off this morning as they move into a dry air mass. The HRRR is delaying our next chance of storms until late tonight, after 10 PM. I wouldn’t be surprised if some rogue thunderstorms developed later this afternoon. Main threats will be damaging winds and hail.

HRRR model from 10 PM to 3 AM tonight into Thursday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

Strong southwest winds and some possible peaks of sunshine will help raise temperatures to a toasty 90ºF. Dew points will be in the low 70s, so it will be humid/muggy. Enjoy that air conditioning today!

As we get into the nighttime hours, temperatures will be around 70ºF, but should still be humid. Rainfall amounts could reach up to 1 inch if storms do pass through, so keep that in mind.

Challenging Forecast Continues for Thursday

Tomorrow will also bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The NAM model indicates rain showers will be working into the area around lunchtime, and hanging around through the mid afternoon hours.

NAM predicting rain showers during the mid afternoon hours for tomorrow. (Pivotal Weather)

Temperatures should top out near 83ºF, but with dew points again around 71ºF, will make for another muggy and uncomfortable day to be outside.

It's miserable when it's this humid out. (Giphy) — It’s miserable when it’s this humid out. (Giphy)

Rainfall amounts should be lighter tomorrow, but if any thunderstorms do pass through, could cause heavy downpours and high rainfall amounts.

By the overnight hours, we still expect some showers and storms to be passing through, mostly after midnight. Temperatures will be around 67ºF, with muggy conditions.

Active Pattern Continues for Friday

Overnight showers/storms should continue throughout the day on Friday, eventually getting a break by the mid to late afternoon hours. As previously mentioned, rain showers are expected to move in early Friday morning, after midnight.

NAM showing rain showers throughout most of the day. (Pivotal Weather)

We may start to dry out by 4 PM, but could have some lingering showers until around 7 PM. More on this to come in tomorrow’s post. Temperatures will once again be around 84ºF, with muggy dew points.

For the overnight, expect humid conditions to continue with temperatures only dropping to around 70ºF. We should be dry during this time period, but changes could definitely happen.

That wraps up today’s forecast. Hope you have a great Wednesday and rest of the week! Make sure to look for the Afternoon Video Update on Facebook and the Afternoon Weather Story on Twitter/Instagram, only on @wxornotBG.